以灰色系統理論分析台灣地區能源消耗與環境變化之關聯性

本研究主要在探討台灣地區近八年來，社會經濟發展所需能源與環境變化之關聯性。台灣地區由於先天自然資源不足，在2008年國內能源進口比例已達到98%，大部分能源皆仰賴國際進口，受到國內經濟發展需求，各項能源需求皆有大幅提高的趨勢。在環保議題逐漸重視下，全球紛紛訂定規範，減少因能源消耗所帶來的環境危機。本研究藉由灰色系統理論之灰關聯分析，了解台灣地區自2000年以來每年所消耗之煤碳、石油以及電力等常用能源與氣溫、二氣化硫、落塵量及總懸浮微粒等環境因子之變化程度與兩者之影響變化關係。研究結果顯示，台灣地區之核能發電使用量與平均氣溫及平均每月落塵量之關係最大，關聯度(γ)達到0.939及0.847，顯示出用電量多寡對於環境品質有相當程度之影響；而石油消耗與二氧化硫及總懸浮微粒濃度之關係最大，關聯度達到0.783及0.908，所以藉由此數據將可明確指出石油對於空氣環境的影響程度。

關鍵字

灰色系統理論；灰關聯分析；環境變化；能源消耗

並列摘要

This study analyzed the relationship between energy consumption and environmental change in Taiwan by grey system theory. The results show that the correlation between nuclear power consumption and both of average weather temperature and average monthly dust were highly related, and their grey correlation coefficients (γ) were 0.847 and 0.939, respectively. It indicates that electricity consumption significantly influences the environmental quality. Furthermore, another considerable effect between the oil consumption and sulfur dioxide (SO2) and total suspended particulates (TSP) was also found, and their grey correlation coefficients were 0.783 and 0.908, respectively. The evidence of oil consumption affecting the emission of environmental pollutants was also corroborated.