經濟自由化對國內肉雞產業之衝擊與影響分析

Impact on Domestic Meat Market on Taiwan Poultry Industry after Free Trade

蕭清仁(Chiang-Ren Show) ； 黃聖茹(Sheng-Ju Huang)

《農業與資源經濟》 4卷2期 (2007/12) Pp. 49-79

https://doi.org/10.29796/ARE.200712.0003

摘要

台灣於2002年加入世界貿易組織(World Trade Organization, WTO)後，逐年調降肉品進口關稅，將直接衝擊到國內肉品市場，對台灣肉雞產業將面臨重大的挑戰。本研究以國內肉雞產業爲對象，採用1981年至2004年台灣肉雞價格與產量及相關變數年資料，應用計量模型分析國內肉雞市場結構，並利用高斯－塞德爾法(Gauss-Seidel)估計移去各種關稅，對肉雞產業的長期與短期效果，藉以評估關稅調降對台灣肉雞產業之衝擊。實證結果顯示，若雞肉關稅保持5%，則白色及有色肉雞將分別減產11.4%及10.85%。業者每公斤將虧損5-6元，產業需調整，規模小或成本高之肉雞業者將離開此產業。雞肉零售價格下跌，惟雞肉需求量增加有限，進口彌補國內減產部分，進口主要爲雞骨腿、雞翅及雞雜碎等部位肉，雞胸肉有出口的機會，但國內尚未出口。

關鍵字

經濟自由化 ； 肉雞產業 ； 衝擊

並列摘要

Being a member of the WTO from 2002, Taiwan should phase out the import tariffs of meat. And it impacts on domestic meat market and Taiwan poultry industry. This study uses the Gauss-Seidel method to estimate its short-run and long-run impact by the annual data of Taiwan poultry quantities, price and related variables from 1981 through 2004. From the empirical results, we could know the case that meat's tariff remain 5%, the quantities of both broiler and colorful broiler would decrease 11.4% and 10.85% respectively. The producers would loss 5-6 dollars per kilogram and this would force Taiwan poultry industry to adjust. And the retail price of broiler would decrease, but the demanded quantity increases little. The increment of import would make up the deduction of domestic production. The major imports are leg quarter and wing. There is the competitive advantage of our boneless/skinless breast, but we do not export it now.

並列關鍵字

free trade ； poultry industry ； impact