台灣肉品逆需求體系季節變動效果之研究

A Study on the Seasonal Variation Effect of the Inverse Demand System of Meat in the Taiwan Area

黃聖茹(Sheng-Ju Huang) ； 林銘昌(Ming-Chang Lin) ； 蕭清仁(Chiang-Ren Show)

《農業與資源經濟》 6卷1期 (2009/06) Pp. 1-29

https://doi.org/10.29796/ARE.200906.0001

摘要

本研究旨在建立具季節變動效果之台灣肉品逆需求體系估計模型，透過對文獻上實證模型設定的修正，將季節變動效果導入逆需求函數及逆需求體系之限制式，以求得不同季節之肉品自身與交叉價格伸縮係數。本研究以Huang(1991)所提出的固定伸縮係數逆需求體系(Constant Flexibility Inverse Demand System)爲基礎，不直接設定效用函數，透過一階微分近似法(First-Order Differential Approximation)導出逆需求體系，並於逆需求體系中加入季節變動調整項，同時將季節變動條件加入各參數所應具有之限制條件，採用似乎無關聯迴歸法(Seemingly Unrelated Regression; SUR)估計台灣肉品逆需求體系。實證結果顯示，加入季節變動效果之台灣肉品逆需求體系較無季節變動之台灣肉品逆需求體系模型配適度爲佳，即台灣肉品逆需求體系存在季節變動效果。

關鍵字

逆需求體系 ； 季節變動 ； 台灣肉品

並列摘要

This research is focused on establishing the Taiwanese meat inverse demand system estimation model taking into account seasonal variation effects. The settings of the model will be adjusted according to the verification obtained from documentary evidence. The seasonal variation effects lead to an inverse demand function and inverse demand system restrictions. The research seeks to obtain different seasonal meat and an intersecting price flexibility coefficient. This research plans to make use of the constant flexibility inverse demand system (Huang, 1991) as the basis, and with indirect setting effectiveness functions, passing through first-order differential approximation leading to the inverse demand system. Within the inverse demand system, add seasonal variation regulatory items. At the same time add every parameter that has restrictive requirements to the seasonal variation requirements. Adopt seemingly unrelated regression estimation for the Taiwanese meat inverse demand system. The result shows that the added seasonal variation effects inverse demand system fit data better than traditional inverse demand system. In other words, it can be said that seasonal variation effects is existed.

並列關鍵字

Inverse Demand System ； Seasonal Variation ； Taiwanese Meat