依據需求理論,理性消費者之所得,在分配支出時,必求效用極大。需求體系內之單一產品需求量同時受到所有同類型產品之價格及總支出的影響。本研究將國內分為5大區,並假設當消費者至國內某一地區的國際觀光旅館住宿消費時,會影響到國內其他地區國際觀光旅館之住宿需求。本研究搜集1999年至2007年之台灣地區國人對國際觀光旅館消費之次級資料,運用固定彈性需求體系(constant flexibility demand system),建立國人對於國內國際觀光旅館住宿需求體系之模型。將季節變動條件加入各參數所應具有之限制條件,採用似乎無關聯迴歸法(seeming unrelated regression)估計國人對於國際觀光旅館住宿需求體系,探討各地區之國際觀光旅館價格變動對其他地區之交互影響之關係。最後依實証結果加以分析,檢定參數是否符合經濟理論之預期。研究結果發現加入季節變動因素後的需求體系對本研究資料之配適效果為佳,由此可知,國人對於國際觀光旅館住宿需求體系顯著存在季節變動效果。
Based on the demand theory, obtained rational consumer, when assigns the disbursement, must ask effectiveness to be enormous. In the demand system the sole product demand simultaneously receives price and the gross charge all same type product influence. This research domestic will divide into 5 districts, and the supposition works as when consumer to domestic some local international sightseeing hotel lodging expense, will affect lodging of demand the domestic other local international sightseeing hotel. This research collected 1999 to Taiwan of area people 2007 to the international sightseeing hotel expense the secondary data, the utilization fixed elastic demand system (constant flexibility demand system), established the people model of regarding the domestic international sightseeing hotel lodging demand system. Joins various parameters the seasonal variation condition to have the limiting condition, uses as if the independence return law (seeming unrelated regression) to estimate the people regarding the international sightseeing hotel lodging demand system Discusses various areas the international sightseeing hotel price changes to other areas relations of the interaction. Finally depends on the real diagnosis result to analyze, whether the examination parameter does conform to anticipation of the economic theory. The findings discovered that the demonstration joins demand of system the seasonal variation factor to the material effect, i.e., people regarding international sightseeing hotel lodging demand system remarkable existence seasonal variation effect.