區域水資源調配管理行爲分析模型

Theoretical Analysis of Regional Water Transfer Management

闕雅文(Ya-Wen Chiueh)

《農業與資源經濟》 6卷1期 (2009/06) Pp. 31-46

https://doi.org/10.29796/ARE.200906.0002

摘要

本文應用獨佔廠商之存貨模型，在水資源供給面與需求面均不確定的情形下，考量跨期儲水、與越域引水，建立區域水資源調派管理行爲分析之理論模型，並使用動態跨期選擇方法分析最適決策行爲。模型分析結果發現：(1)水政單位不應設計僵固之水價管理機制，以免妨礙水資源之配置效率。(2)區域水資源調配管理機構在無法建造大型水庫之環境限制下，應設法挖埤塘蓄水、租用水田並將其休耕蓄水、或建構人工湖儲水，以提高跨期儲水比例。(3)若能有正確之氣象與雨量預測，或各行業之水資源需求函數，將有助於水資源之分配更趨效率。

關鍵字

水資源調配 ； 動態跨期選擇 ； 存貨模型 ； 獨占廠商

並列摘要

This paper applies the inventory model of the monopoly firm to establish a regional water transfer management institution behavior analysis model. The behavior analysis model uses stochastic dynamic mechanism to find out the optimal water transfer price under the condition of uncertainty demand and supply of water resources. This model assumes the regional water transfer management institution could reserve water resources for cross-term usage and borrow water from other regional water management institutions when its reserved water is insufficient. The results of this paper show that 1) the water administration authorities should not set up a rigid water transfer price management mechanism. 2) The regional water transfer management institution is supposed to dig ditches and ponds to reserve water, or to rent rice fields for fallow in order to reserve water. And 3) correct weather and rainfall predictions as well as the demand function of water resources in all industries; will make the distribution of water resources more effective.

並列關鍵字

Regional Water Transfer ； Stochastic Dynamic Mechanism ； Inventory Model ； Monopoly Firm