WTO架構下開放對大陸投資之經貿影響評估

An Economy-wide Analysis of Impacts of Liberalizing Taiwan's Investment in China under the WTO framework

徐世勳(Shih-Hsun Hsu) ； 吳秉叡(Bin-Ruei Wu)

《臺灣經濟預測與政策》 33卷1期 (2003/03) Pp. 75-110

https://doi.org/10.29629/TEFP.200303.0005

摘要

本文運用可計算一般均衡GTAP多國模型及其最新第五版經貿資料庫，探討在WTO架構下開放大陸投資對國內經貿的影響。結果顯示，假設存在投資貿易創造效果的情境下，開放大陸投資確能有效加速兩岸產業分工，使國內在大陸設廠的母公司競爭力增強，而對台灣經濟成長將有正面的助益。相反的，在不考慮貿易創造效果的情況下，則開放對大陸投資將可能造成所謂產業「空洞化」的現象。而兩岸貿易變化上，我國對大陸的貿易依存度將因開放大陸投資再度上升，對大陸出超亦持續增加。

關鍵字

可計算一般均衡分析 ； 投資 ； 貿易創造效果 ； 產業空洞化

並列摘要

This paper used a multi-sectoral, multi-regional GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project) model and its fifth database to analyze the impacts on Taiwan's economy after liberalizing investment in China under the WTO framework. Simulation results indicate that if the trade creation effect exists due to the investment, then the division of labor between Cross-Strait industries will be enhanced. Taiwan's industries that have factories set in China will increase their international competitiveness. Taiwan will benefit significantly from liberalizing her investment in China.

並列關鍵字

Computable General Equilibrium Analysis ； Investment ； Trade Creation Effect ； Industrial Hollowing Out

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