台灣經貿輪軸策略之探討-GTAP模型之應用

Strategies of Trade Hub in Taiwan: A Computational Analysis

林岑璠(Cen-Fan Lin)

指導教授 ： 徐芳霞

國立臺北大學/社會科學學院/經濟學系/碩士(2010年)

摘要

本研究與其他相關文獻不同點在於後者只著重於中國大陸與台灣的自由貿易協定對於彼此總體經濟、產業部門影響之討論，而本研究則更進一步，運用可計算一般均衡模型之GTAP模型分別探討與中國大陸、美國、日本、新加坡及韓國經貿合作下之影響及衝擊，並探討比較台灣作為軸心國、被結盟國(軸輻國)以及成為自由貿易區一員對台灣經貿的影響，最後使用GEMPACK軟體求解，以分析各情境在簽訂自由貿易協定後對台灣的個別產業及總體經濟變數、貿易、福利效果之影響，推論出對台灣最適之經貿策略。

關鍵字

輪軸國；結盟國；自由貿易協定；台灣；可計算一般均衡模型

並列摘要

This study is different from the literature where only focus on the Chinese mainland and Taiwan free trade agreement for the overall mutual economic, industrial sectoral impacts of the discussion. Furthermore, this study uses a computable general equilibrium model GTAP model were discussed with the Chinese mainland, U.S., Japan, Singapore and trade cooperation under the influence and impact, and comparative study in Taiwan as the hub, spoke, and one pair of a free trade zone Trade of Taiwan. Finally GEMPACK software solution, to analyze the situation after the signing of free trade agreements for individual industries and Taiwan's overall economic variables, trade and welfare effects of the impact and concluded that the optimum economic and trade policy in Taiwan. The conclusions of this study were as follows:

The welfare of Taiwan as a hub of the rate of increase than in the Free Trade Area of the Member States of the welfare of the rate of increase is far greater, even more than the welfare of a spoke, in other words, the entry into force of the ASEAN Plus One, will be a negative impact on Taiwan, so Taiwan's better coping strategies separately for Taiwan and mainland China, U.S. sign free trade agreement or, respectively, with China, Japan sign free trade agreements, but only when Taiwan and China sign free trade agreements, other countries will be adversely affected, it will have on these countries also signed a free trade agreement with Taiwan the incentive to reduce the negative impacts.

In addition, also found that if Taiwan and China sign free trade agreements, will not join the free trade agreement the United States, Japan or South Korea's welfare down, but if these countries join the Taiwan and mainland China Free Trade Agreement, then it will make up their own welfare, and therefore more incentive to promote these countries signed a free trade agreement with Taiwan, and Taiwan to increase the chances to become the Axis. Therefore, the Chinese mainland is Taiwan's springboard into the international trade.

Final certainty of industrial sector in the export competitiveness of Taiwan industries (oil, plastics and non-metal products, textiles, garments and leather products and so on) available for their participation in free trade agreements received after the trade gains . Therefore, Taiwan can sign a free trade agreement so that the original terms of trade deterioration and social welfare standard and thus ease.

並列關鍵字

Hub；Spoke；FTA；Taiwan；CGE Model；GTAP

參考文獻

徐世勳與吳秉叡(2001)，〈WTO架構下開放對大陸投資之經貿影響評

張壬慈(2002)，〈區域經濟整合發展對台灣農產品貿易之影響-以

國家政策研究基金會網站，http:// www.npf.org.tw

中華經濟研究院網站，http:// www.cier.edu.tw

Multilateral ASEAN+4 Free Trade Agreements Possible