過去已累積大量的文獻探討房地產產業的擴張與經濟成長之間的關係,這些文獻普遍認為房地產產業提供了經濟成長重要的動能來源、可以刺激經濟活動。然而,晚近有學者開始批判快速上漲的房價可能成為負擔、改變一國的創業環境。為了進一步了解房價波動對於我國創業活動的影響,本研究分別利用我國2002至2015年的縣市追蹤資料、以及「華人家庭動態調查」之個人追蹤資料來進行實證研究,估計方法包括雙向固定效果模型、隨機效果模型、以及Logit模型。縣市追蹤資料的估計結果發現房價對於新增工商業活動、自營及雇主比例的淨影響皆偏負,代表當房價上升,創業活動與創業人口比例下降。個人追蹤資料的估計結果則發現房價對有房人群創業決策的淨影響偏正、對無房人群創業決策的淨影響則偏負、或不顯著,代表當房價上升時,有房人群選擇創業的機率上升,而無房人群選擇創業的機率或無變動、或下降,顯現經濟較弱勢的無房人群較無機會從房價變動中獲得改善經濟狀態的機會。
This study empirically examines the impact of housing prices on entrepreneurial activities in Taiwan. While previous studies focused on the positive impact of housing prices on economic growth, lately some scholars have started to point out the possible negative impact of high housing prices on entrepreneurial activities. We utilize a panel dataset consisting of 22 counties and cities in Taiwan from 2002 to 2015 as well as an individual-level longitudinal dataset, and examine the impact of housing prices on entrepreneurial activities in Taiwan. The empirical strategies include fixed effect models, random effect models, and logit models. The findings of this study provide evaluations of the impact of housing market activities on the economy from a different angle.