Risk Analysis of Cropland Suitability in China under Climate Variability and Change

中國大陸適栽農耕地在氣候變異及變遷下之風險性評估

Masayuki Yokozawa ； Fu-Lu Tao ； Toshihiro Sakamoto

《作物、環境與生物資訊》 1卷4期 (2004/12) Pp. 264-271

https://doi.org/10.30061/CEB.200412.0004

摘要

作者進行一項農業用水需求變化趨勢之研究，收集包括中國大陸農耕地在乾旱及高地表逕流量之土壤水分變化趨勢與變異幅度和對農業生產衝擊，涵蓋過去1946-1995年之五十年資料及未來2031-2065年之預測值。土壤水分狀況之時間與空間變化及變異分佈係繪製於0.5º解析度之網格，結果顯示在中國大陸北方及東北方平原，農業用水需求增加、土壤乾旱增強及可利用土壤水分含量變異之間具有顯著相關。在中國大陸西北部，土壤水分含量呈現明顯上升趨勢，農業用水需求則明顯下降。在中國大陸東南部，並未出現農業用水需求及土壤水分含量的顯著起伏。這些農業用水需求及土壤水分含量的改變影響土壤缺水程度，進而影響農業生產的高低變化。地表徑流量升高的地區以西南部及東北部高山地區較為明顯，在南部沿海部分地區亦有類似現象。

關鍵字

氣候變遷 ； 土壤水分狀況 ； 模式 ； 作物耕作地 ； 中國大陸

並列摘要

We explored the changing trends in agricultural water demands, the changing trends and variability in soil moisture associated with both drought and increased surface runoff in Chinese croplands during the last half-century (1946-95) as well as the projected future years (2031-65), and their impacts on agricultural production. We plotted temporal and spatial changes in soil moisture condition and its variability on a grid of 0.5º resolution. We found a trend toward agricultural water demands increasing, soil drying and significant changes in soil-moisture variability on the North China Plain and the Northeast China Plain. There was a significant decrease in agricultural water demands and a significant increase in soil-moisture levels in Southwest China, and a generally insignificant increase or decrease trend in agricultural water demands and soil-moisture levels in Southeast China. These changes in agricultural water demands and soil-moisture levels had corresponding impacts on soil-moisture deficit, and consequently on agricultural production. Increased surface runoff was found in the mountainous areas of the southwest and northeast, and in some areas along the South Coast.

並列關鍵字

Climate change ； Soil water condition ； Model ； Cropland ； China