東部地區農業氣象環境與災害發生潛勢分析

The Agrometeorological Environment and Disasters Occurring Potential in the Eastern Region of Taiwan

陳守泓(Shou-Hung Chen) ； 申雍(Yuan Shen) ； 姚銘輝(Ming-Hwi Yao)

《作物、環境與生物資訊》 4卷4期 (2007/12) Pp. 329-339

https://doi.org/10.30061/CEB.200712.0006

摘要

依據中央氣象局之宜蘭、花蓮及臺東氣象站自1949-2003年的觀測資料，整理各站每年低溫(≤10℃)與高溫(≥30℃)的日數、年累積降雨量與降雨(≥1.0mm)日數等項目，以及1959-2004年的侵臺颱風數目，以瞭解東部地區異常氣象狀況的發生情形，並以十年為週期統計分析各災害性天氣狀況的發生趨勢。災害發生潛勢則以豪雨及低溫為分析項目，以對東部地區的農業氣象資料進行潛勢分析及探討。分析結果指出，年降雨量及降雨日數雖未呈現明顯的異常增減，但近年來高溫日數及侵臺颱風數目均有增加的趨勢，使作物生產仍存有較大的損害風險。關於旱害，雖然降雨日數與年降雨量並未呈現明顯偏少（低），但高溫異常偏高的可能性增加，因此預期未來旱害的影響仍可能有上升的趨勢。就降雨潛勢分析而言，七月至九月的豪雨發生機率明顯較梅雨季節為高，且多發生於宜蘭及臺東山區。受氣候暖化之影響，≥30℃的日數有異常偏多趨勢，雖然平地農作物大面積遭受寒害的機率不大，但山坡地上的經濟果樹仍需防範低溫傷害，尤其是一月的低溫時期需注意局部受害的可能。

關鍵字

農業氣象災害 ； 氣象災害潛勢 ； 颱風 ； 雨害

並列摘要

In this study, yearly data , including number of days ≤ 10℃ (D10) and ≥ 30℃(D30), accumulated precipitation (P(superscript acc)), and number of days with precipitation ≥ 1.0mm (D(superscript prec)), from 1949-2003 of three Central Weather Bureau (CWB) weather stations located at eastern region and number of typhoon that may invade Taiwan during 1959-2004 were collected. Occurrence of abnormal meteorological conditions at eastern region were first identified and followed with 10 year moving average to study the trend. The potential of agrometeorological disasters, heavy rainfall and low temperature, was analyzed. Results indicated that the number of typhoon and D30 were increasing recently. Although the trend of P(superscript acc) and D(superscript prec) did not increase significantly, it was expected that the high risk of agricultural production due to the impacts of high temperature and number of typhoon followed the current increasing trend. In case of the drought damage, there was neither significant decreasing trend of Pacc nor of D(superscript prec), but D30 showed significant increasing pattern. It was expected that the impact of agricultural production due to drought followed the current increasing trend. According to the analysis of rainfall potential, the probability of heavy rainfall from July to September was higher than that in Mei-yu season, especially in the mountainous area of Yilan and Taitung. There was significant increasing trend of D30 and warming in current years. Chances of having extensive cold damages over flat land were rare. However, fruit trees grown in hillsides suffered significant cold damages locally, especially in January.

並列關鍵字

Agrometeorological disaster ； Meteorological disaster potential ； Typhoon ； Rainfall damage