Projection of Effects of Climate Change on Rice Yield and Keys to Reduce Its Uncertainties

氣候變遷對水稻產量影響之預測及降低不確定性之關鍵

Mayumi Yoshimoto ； Masayuki Yokozawa ； Toshichika Iizumi ； Masashi Okada ； Motoki Nishimori ； Yoshimitsu Masaki ； Yasushi Ishigooka ； Tsuneo Kuwagata ； Motohiko Kondo ； Tsutomu Ishimaru ； Minehiko Fukuoka ； Toshihiro Hasegawa

《作物、環境與生物資訊》 7卷4期 (2010/12) Pp. 260-268

https://doi.org/10.30061/CEB.201012.0005

摘要

大氣中二氧化碳濃度的上升及伴隨而來的全球暖化現象，勢將影響農作生產。已有許多試驗及模式模擬進行探討，期以預估氣候變遷對水稻產量之影響，惟通常在進行大面積水稻產量評估時，將可能會出現相當程度之不確定性。這些不確定性來自不同的根源，諸如設定之溫室氣體(GHGs)排放情境、全球變遷模式(GCMs)、全球氣候與當地氣候間之差距等，而稻株發育模式本身亦存在不確定性。本文陳述了作者近年在大面積作物模式及試驗研究上所發現的各種不確定性，以及在進行評估時如何降低這些不確定性的做法。針對模擬技巧方面，本文回顧了模式參數及使用多種情境與多種全球變遷模式的統計做法，在田間試驗方面，則綜合了2007年炎夏進行關於小穗花不稔率的田間調查方法及關於田間開放空間高二氧化碳試驗[free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE)experiment]的部分內容。本文據此回顧提出強烈建議，欲發展一套以程序為基礎的水稻發育模式，應當將熱力（能量）平衡包括在內。若能將田間開放空間高二氧化碳試驗加上以程序為基礎的模式，將有助於減少評估時的不確定性，以及在氣候變遷情境下研究調適與避免熱逆境及負面效應時的驗證工作。

關鍵字

預測 ； 氣候變遷 ； 水稻產量 ； 衝擊評估 ； 預估不確定性

並列摘要

The increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration and accompanying global warming should affect crop productivity. A number of experiments and simulations have been conducted to predict the impacts of climate change on rice yield. When conducting large-scale evaluation of rice yield, there are large uncertainties, which resulted from a number of sources, such as those in the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios, global climate models (GCMs) and its gaps between global and local climates. In addition, the rice development models themselves include uncertainties. In this paper, we present our recent studies on large-scale evaluation by crop models and trials to elucidate and reduce uncertainties accompanied with each aspect of evaluation. In modeling technique aspect, statistical approach for model parameters and the use of multi-scenarios and multi-GCMs are reviewed. In field experiment aspect, we present a field survey on spikelet sterility in the hot summer of 2007 and some insights from free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) experiment. They strongly suggest the necessity for developing a process-based rice development model including heat balance. The synthesized process-based model study in tandem with FACE experiments contributes not only for reducing the evaluation uncertainties, but also for validating the adapting or avoiding studies of heat stress or negative influence on rice under projected climate change.

並列關鍵字

Projection ； Climate change ； Rice yield ； Impact assessment ； Prediction uncertainty