結構化易學方法於企業經營預測之量化研究

預測是一種基於科學驗證的決策模式。現代數位化企業在瞬息萬變的競爭市場體系中，經常受到許多因素影響。企業家必須收集即時數據與信息，確定正確的營運目標，和擬定穩健的經營決策，並建立最佳的商業模式。企業主所使用的經營預測模式與方法，是重要的成功關鍵因素。企業經營預測是企業根據以下因素，展現對未來的發展趨勢進行預測與評估。這些因素包括現有經濟環境、營業現狀、歷史經驗、客觀的洞察、和使用質性或量化的分析方法。中華民族以農立國。中國先民透過觀察與紀錄天文與地象，並根據四季循環週期，建立農業耕作法則。易經是先民生活的經驗法則，是中華文化哲理基礎，也是最古老的信息預測方法。易經預測方法建立在「因事而占，以象述相，以數驗徵，以理闡義」。易經是一種使用「卦與爻」方法，抽象化所預測的事件，並建構全息系統架構。邵雍是宋代中國哲學家，宇宙學家和易經大師，對中國新儒家思想的發展有著長遠的影響。他以類似現代二進制數的形式，重新排列卦序。本研究法是邵雍的「梅花易數」（Plum Blossom Divination）為基礎，整合具週期循環特性之「十二辟卦」預測法（the Twelve Sovereign Hexagrams），並使用「決策實驗室分析法」DEMATEL為驗證方法。本研究以一家台灣上市公司作為研究個案，針對該公司之營運進行預測，並提出量化之易經預測方法。

關鍵字

經營預測；梅花易數；十二辟卦；決策實驗室分析法

並列摘要

Forecast is a scientifically validated decision model. Modern digital enterprises often affected by many factors in the rapidly changing competitive market. Entrepreneurs must collect real-time data and information, determine the correct operational goals, and develop sound business decisions and build the best business model. The business model and method used by business owners is an important success factor. Business forecast is based on the following factors, to show the future development trend of forecasting and evaluation. These factors include the existing economic environment, business status, historical experience, objective insight, and the use of qualitative or quantitative analysis methods. The Chinese nation is based on agriculture for the establishment of the country. Chinese ancestors through the observation and record of astronomy and terrain, and according to the four seasons cycle, the establishment of agricultural farming rules. I Ching is the rule of life of ancestors, the foundation of the Chinese culture, and the oldest method of information prediction. Divination is for specific events, abstracting these events as symbols, using data to validate these events, and explaining the truths represented by these events. I Ching is an approach which using the ＂Hexagram and Yao＂ method, abstracting the predicted events, and constructing holographic system. Shao Yong, was a Song dynasty Chinese philosopher, cosmologist and scholar of I Ching who greatly influenced the development of Neo-Confucianism in China. He rearranged the hexagrams in a format that resembles modern binary numbers. This study is based on Shao Yong's ＂Plum Blossom Divination＂, combined with the method of Twelve Sovereign Hexagrams with periodic characteristics, and using the DEMATEL method as a validation method. In this study, a public traded company of Taiwan was used as a research case to forecast the operation of the company and to propose a quantitative forecast method of I Ching.