住宅房價利率彈性的評估－實證的觀點

近年來，房地產市場的景氣循環常受經濟層面的相關考驗，而影響房地產市場價格波動的潛在因素大致可分為個體面因素（如交通便利性、地區地點、公園、嫌惡設施、房屋坪數、建築材料，以及樓層別等）及總體面因素（如個人所得、利率、人口成長率、就業率、在地文化、社會層面，以及政府政策等），其中，利率更是決定房地產投資行為的一項重要的因素。本文蒐集台灣地區房地產市場交易的資料，實證性地探討房價與利率間的相關性。自2009年起，政府為了抑制房價祭出一系列打房政策，其中，亦不乏採用利率相關政策為手段，然而利率的控制對於房價是否具有有效的抑制效果尚未可知，而過去文獻對此的著墨卻也相當有限，是故，本文將研究重點聚焦於房價與利率二者間關係的檢驗，研究的起訖時間為2002年第2季至2015年第4季的季資料，觀察對象則包括全國與六都直轄市。實證結果發現，利率變動率顯著影響新北市、台北市、桃園市房價；其他全國、台中市、台南市、高雄市房價變動率受利率變動率的影響並不顯著的；此外，全國、台南市與房價變動率是呈現正相關，而新北市、台北市、桃園市、台中市、高雄市則呈現負相關。

關鍵字

房價；利率彈性；六都

並列摘要

In recent years, the real estate market fluctuates with the economy. In fact, individual factors (including convenience of transportation, location, parks, size of house, construction material and floor plan) and overall factor (personal income, interest, growth of population, employment rate, local culture, social influence and government policies) all come into effect of influencing the prices of real estate. More specifically, interest plays a big role in the behavior of real estate investment. This article aims to collect information relating to the transactions of the real estate market in Taiwan as well to investigate and proof with evidence the relationship between real estate price and interest. Starting from 2009, the government in order to cut down house prices has introduced many relating policies. Many of these policies are all related to the manipulation of interest. However, the intend to suppress real estate price has not been proven to be effective and past researches are limited in the focus of such matter. Therefore, this article will base its research on the relationship between real estate price and interest. Time of research will be between the second quarter of year 2000 to the fourth quarter of 2016. Research audience will be all cities in Taiwan. Results shown, changes in interest have influenced, Taipei city, Taoyuan City, New Taipei City the most. The other major cities including, Taichuang, Tainan, and Kaoshung, the effect of such is not as obviously seen. In short, Tainan and rest of the country have a positive correlation of interest and change in price of house while New Taipei, Taipei, Taoyuan, Taichung and Kaoshung have negative correlation.