建構中華職業棒球聯盟選手勝負關鍵能力評估模式之研究

Constructing an Evaluation Model for the Chinese Professional Baseball League Players

鄭俊傑(Chun-Chieh Cheng)

《臺灣體育運動管理學報》 16卷1期 (2016/06) Pp. 121-145

https://doi.org/10.6547/tassm.2016.0005

摘要

目的：本研究以棒球比賽得分大於失分即獲得勝利的概念建構中華職業棒球聯盟球隊野手得分能力與投手失分能力之評估模式。方法:為考慮評估的複雜性與多準則之特性，先以迴歸分析找出影響中華職業棒球聯盟球隊得分與失分之影響指標，並將所得之指標視為野手得分能力與投手失分能力之評估準則。再應用層級分析法求取職棒野手得分能力與投手之失分能力各評估準則之權重，以層級分析法理想模式進行野手得分能力與投手失分能力排序之實證分析。結果與討論:顯現野手得分能力依序為安打、四死球、打點、盜壘成功及被三振等五項重要原則，實證討論呈現野手得分能力前六名為各隊的中心棒次，展現各隊打擊中心的價值。在投手失分能力依序為自責分、面對打席、投四死、投失誤、被安打、投球局數及投三振等七項重要準則，實證討論顯示中華職棒聯盟投手失分能力居於前六名均為後援投手，後援投手在面對危機或分數領先時上場投球，投球局數少，若失分易造成投手自責分提高。本研究期望所建構中華職業棒球聯盟野手得分能力與投手失分能力之評估模式，可作為職棒球團實際評價野手與投手之參考依據，且能提供中華職業棒球聯盟球隊管理階層、教練團在評估選手時能更有效率及更妥善的模式，且對球隊競爭力有所提昇。

關鍵字

野手得分能力 ； 投手失分能力 ； 迴歸分析 ； 層級分析法理想模式

並列摘要

Purpose: The research objective of this study was to apply the concept of runs, and not earned runs, to construct an evaluation model for the Chinese Professional Baseball League (CPBL). The evaluation model was used to assess a fielder’s run scoring ability and a pitcher’s earned run ability. Methods: Regression analysis was performed to determine the impact indicators of runs and earned runs on CPBL teams, and these gained indicators were considered the evaluation criteria of a fielder’s run scoring ability and a pitcher’s earned run ability. Furthermore, the evaluation criterion of a fielder’s run scoring ability and a pitcher’s earned run ability were determined through the analytic hierarchy process. The priority of a fielder’s run scoring ability and a pitcher’s earned run ability was analyzed using the AHP ideal model. Results and Discussion: The indicators for fielder’s run scoring abilities were 1) hit (H), 2) base on balls, 3) run battle in, 4) stolen base, and 5) strikeout. Empirical data analysis demonstrated that the top 6 fielders of CPBL were at the heart of the batting lineup of their respective teams. The analysis also revealed the value of the heart of the batting lineup. In addition, the pitcher’s earned run abilities were earned run, at bat, wild pitch, hit by batter, innings pitched), and strikeout. The empirical data analysis demonstrated that the top 6 pitchers in CPBL were relief pitchers. Relief pitchers usually enter the game at a clutch time or a lead-situation. With fewer innings pitched, if the relief pitcher yields runs, the earned run average would increase. This study’s evaluation model of a fielder’s run scoring ability and a pitcher’s earned run ability could be used by baseball clubs to evaluate their fielders and pitchers. Therefore, this model can provide a more efficient and accurate way for CPBL’s managers and coaches to evaluate players and improve their competiveness.

並列關鍵字

Fielder's Run Scoring Ability ； Pitcher's Earned Run Ability ； Regression Analysis ； Analytic Hierarchy Process Ideal Model

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