中華職棒轉隊球員表現研究

目的：中華職棒除了成為自由球員的頂級球星外，也有許多球員因其他因素而轉換隊伍，本研究目的為探討中華職棒近10年之轉隊球員在轉隊前後之表現情形，了解球員流動的現象和原因。方法：以兩階段分析2009年至2018年轉隊球員之轉隊前後1年成績（不包含因行使自由球員資格而獲得優渥合約之球員）。第一階段使用相依樣本t檢定分析各隊打者及投手之轉隊前後表現，分析指標包含聯盟官網提供之各項指標及進階統計數據wRC+和WAR。第二階段使用獨立樣本t檢定分析轉隊球員在離隊年度與原團隊表現是否具差異性。結果：近10年中華職棒球員於轉隊前後表現無顯著差異；轉隊打者打擊率與團隊無顯著差異，轉隊投手之防禦率則顯著劣於團隊。結論：轉隊球員中除了部分表現優異但因非成績因素遭釋出之球員外，普遍表現中等，然其身手並未於轉隊後明顯下滑，顯示具有穩定表現，其他球團可根據隊形、即戰力需求、場上經驗等因素與之簽約以補足團隊所缺戰力。研究發現球員場上技術表現並非球團決定其去留之唯一考量，如何評估球員價值以符合球隊戰力需求亦考驗著球隊經理人的眼光和智慧，因此未來可考慮建立評估準則。

關鍵字

球員交易；打擊率；防禦率； wRC+ ； WAR

並列摘要

Purpose: There have been many players that have joined at least 2 different teams in the Chinese Professional Baseball League (CPBL) over the years, some are top players who are free agents while others choose a different team for other reasons. This study is going to investigate the before and after performance of these CPBL players who transferred to a different team in recent 10 years, in order to understand how and why they make the transfers. Methods: We evaluated the one-year performance of CPBL players before and after they transferred to different teams between 2009 and 2018 in two stages (excluding free agent players). First, there was an evaluation of the performance of transferring fielders and transferring pitchers utilizing the Paired Sample t-test, and the indicators included basic statistics provided by the official website of CPBL and other advanced statistics, such as wRC+ & WAR. Secondly, we investigated whether the performance of these transferring players and the team performance differ from one another with the Independent Sample t-test. Results: There is no significant difference between the performance of players after transferring to a different team. Nor is there a significant difference in batting average of transferring fielders and the batting average of team. Yet the earned run average (ERA) of the transferring pitchers is significantly higher than the ERA of team. Conclusions: Transferring players do not necessarily deliver better performance, but they do remain their skills without deteriorating. As a result, team managers can decide whether to sign transferring players depending on the team formation, direct capacity, leading ability, salaries, etc. when aiming to elevate the overall competitiveness of the team. The players' performance is not the only consideration to be taken account of when making such decisions.

並列關鍵字

player deal ； batting average ； ERA ； wRC+ ； WAR

參考文獻

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中華職棒轉隊球員表現研究

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