建構中華職業棒球大聯盟球員績效評估之模式及實證分析

Construction and Empirical Analysis of a Model for Evaluating the Performance of Chinese Professional Baseball League Players

陳志成(Chih-Cheng Chen)

《臺灣體育運動管理學報》 16卷1期 (2016/06) Pp. 171-202

https://doi.org/10.6547/tassm.2016.0007

摘要

為讓職業棒球隊具有永續經營的能力，「績效評估」一詞已被職業棒球運動領域廣泛的運用及探討。據此，本研究利用棒球比賽得分大於失分即獲得勝利的概念，以中華職棒聯盟官方網站所提供之各年度所有球隊技術表現資料為樣本，透過迴歸分析法找出得分及失分對勝率影響的關鍵因素，並算出每個關鍵因素的權重，又將所得之關鍵因素視為野手得分能力與投手失分能力之評估準則。再以中華職業棒球大聯盟2014年各隊投手與野手在各項評估準則上的表現為實證資料，應用灰關聯分析法及成本效益分析益本比法則來進行中華職業棒球大聯盟各隊野手及投手績效評估之驗證。研究結果顯示平均每場得失分對球隊勝率的解釋能力高於整季得失分，且得失分對勝率影響的權重相近；得失分的評估準則分別有10個及8個，得分的評估準則權重有98.4%與野手避免出局的能力有關，失分的評估準則權重有65.1%與投手的被上壘率、三振率及防禦率有關；2014年的球季有超過54％的球員績效表現不佳，尤其是投手。本文所建構之績效評估模式能有效提供客觀且易執行的程序給予中華職業棒球大聯盟所屬之球隊實際評估球員績效之參考依據。

關鍵字

績效評估 ； 投手 ； 野手 ； 迴歸分析 ； 灰關聯分析

並列摘要

Term performance evaluations have been widely adopted and explored in the field of professional baseball to improve the potential for sustainable development among teams. This study was based on the concept that winning a game entails the winning team scoring a higher number of points than did the losing team. Samples were collected from each team’s technical performance records provided by the official website of the Chinese Professional Baseball League (CPBL). Regression analysis demonstrated the key factors influencing the effect of winning team points and losing team points on the percentage of games won by each baseball team; the weight of each key factor was also determined. The key factors were considered as criteria for evaluating the point-winning ability of fielders and point-losing ability of pitchers. On the basis of each key criterion and through the use of the actual performance data of the fielders and pitchers of each team in the 2014 CPBL season, grey relational and cost-benefit analyses were applied to test the performance evaluation of fielders and pitchers in the CPBL. The results showed that the explanatory power associated with the winning percentage of a team was higher when determined using the average winning and losing points in each game than when determined using the season average of winning and losing points. Moreover, winning and losing points exerted similarly weighted effects on winning percentage. A total of 10 and 8 evaluation criteria were used for winning and losing points, respectively. The weight of the point-winning evaluation criteria was 98.4%, and it was related to the ability of fielders to avoid being struck out. Moreover, the weight of the point-losing evaluation criteria was 65.1%, and it was related to the on-base percentage, strikeout percentage, and earned run average of pitchers. In the 2014 season, more than 54% of players did not perform satisfactorily; this was particularly true of pitchers. In conclusion, the performance evaluation model constructed in this study provides an objective and easy procedure for CPBL teams to evaluate the performance of their players.

並列關鍵字

performance evaluation ； pitchers ； fielders ； regression analysis ； grey relational analysis

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