Research on the Forecasting of China's Export Trade in Post-financial Crisis Era

Hong-Wei Xiao

《管理科學與統計決策》 7卷3期 (2010/09) Pp. 28-37

https://doi.org/10.6704/JMSSD.2010.7.3.28

並列摘要

Abstract: In this paper, we use X-12-ARIMA program seasonally adjusted the China's exports and export-year increase monthly data, then based on the seasonally adjusted export data, and establish ARIMA model for export forecast. The forecast results showed that: China exports in 2010 can be restored to the level of 2008, our export maintained a good momentum of development in Post-financial Crisis Era. Although China's export policies on expand domestic demand and stability export have achieved significant results, the overall develop environment of China's export trade improve in Post-financial Crisis Era, still face many uncertain and instability factors. We need government and business join hands to face the difficulties and problems in Post-financial Crisis Era, take efforts to achieve sound and rapid of export healthy and stable development.

並列關鍵字

In Post-financial Crisis Era ； export trade ； forecast ； X-12-ARIMA ； seasonal adjustment

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