網路空間、虛擬社群與318學運：以PTT與八卦板人氣分析為例

Cyberspace, Virtual Community and March 18 Student Movement: Take Numbers of PTT and Gossiping for Example

翁培文(Pei-Wen Weng)

《華岡地理學報》 33期 (2021/12) Pp. 77-98

摘要

世界上有許多種不同型式的空間，現實世界可以透過網路空間影響虛擬社群，而虛擬社群的回應也可能影響現實世界。318學運是近幾年臺灣規模最大的社會運動，主要發動者是學生與公民團體，在缺乏良好的政治與經濟基礎下仍能發揮聯絡和動員優勢，原因之一是善用網路。過去網路與現實世界有許多質性、靜態的論述，較缺乏量化、動態的研究，本文以PTT和八卦板為例，由虛擬社群的量變，重新審視學運中的大小事件，哪些吸引了較多的關注，哪些則未引起太多的注意。研究結果發現，學運期間來自總統府與行政院的發言並未引起虛擬社群太多的量變，如果當時能體察網路輿論做適當的修正，最後應不致在被動的情況下結束學運。最後，用SARIMA模型預測PTT與八卦板使用者的變化，準確性頗佳，可做為日後政治觀察和社會動員的參考。

關鍵字

318學運 ； 網路空間 ； 虛擬社群 ； PTT八卦板 ； 季節型ARIMA

並列摘要

There are many types of space in the world. The physical world can affect virtual communities through cyberspace, while responses and reactions from virtual communities can just as much affect the physical world. The Sunflower Student Movement is the biggest social movement in Taiwan in recent years instigated mainly by students and civil groups. Despite lacking sound political and economic foundations, they still effectively carried out communication and mobilization. One of the reasons is their effective use of the Internet. There are numerous qualitative and static discourses from past research on cyberspace and the physical world. However, quantified and dynamic research is comparatively few. This paper focuses on PTT and "Gossiping Board". Due to quantitative changes in virtual communities, it is necessary to review all events that have taken place during the student movement, such as the ones that attracted more attention and vice-versa. Results indicate that announcements from the Presidential Office Building and the Executive Yuan did not trigger significant quantitative changes in virtual communities. Had the government paid heed to online public opinion and made changes accordingly, they probably wouldn’t have to end the movement under passive circumstances. Lastly, the SARIMA model is used to predict changes in PTT and Gossiping Board users, yielding great accuracy. The findings may serve as references for future political observations and social mobilization.

並列關鍵字

March 18 Student Movement ； cyberspace ； virtual community ； PTT Gossiping ； SARIMA

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