- 期刊
重大投資對區域經濟影響之研究－以南部區域為例
The Impact of Important Investment on Regional Economics-The Case of Southern Taiwan
摘要
本研究提供詳細說明如何建構一個小區域的CGE模型，並且應用該模型分析台南科學工業園區設置對台灣南部區域經濟衝擊影響。一般而言，建構小區域的CGE模型有其困難度，大部分是缺乏資料所致。本研究主要貢獻是透過相關次級資料整理，如投入產出表、國民所得帳、工商普查及縣、市統計要覽等等建立社會會計矩陣，以作為南部區域模型之資料基礎，然後應用該模型探討台南科學工業園區設置對南部區域經濟衝擊分析，本研究模擬設計分為二階段進行，第一階段為開發時期模擬分析，第二階段為營運時期模擬分析。研究結果顯示，第一階段開發時期對產出影響較大者依序為營造業、鋼鐵業與服務事業，對就業影響較大者依序為營造業、鋼鐵業與批發及零售業，對所得影響較大者依序為營造業、鋼鐵業與批發及零售業。第二階段營運時期對產出影響較大者依序為南科相關產業、服務事業與批發及零售業，對就業影響較大者依序為營造業、服務事業與其他製造業，對所得影響較大者依序為營造業、服務事業與其他製造業。
並列摘要
This study provides a detailed description of how a CGE model of a small region is constructed, the data requirement established by the model equations, and demonstrates how the model is used to analyze the economic impact of constructing Tainan Science-Based Industrial Park (TSBIP) locating in southern region in Taiwan. Researchers have typically found it difficult to create CGE models of regions smaller than country. The difficulty arises due to a lack of quality secondary data. A major contribution of this research is that it shows how secondary data consisting of input-output table, national income account, industry, commerce and service census, statistical abstract of county or city etc, can be used in combination with a unique Social Accounting Matrix balancing procedure in order to produce an acceptable base level model. The model is then used to show that analyzing the impact of the establishment of TSBIP on southern region in Taiwan's economy is performed in two stages. The first stage simulates the economic impact of the TSBIP construction phase. The second looks at the economy of the TSBIP when it is up and running. Scenario 1, output effects reveal that the most impacted industries in southern Taiwan are construction, iron & steel industry, and service industry. Employment effects reveal that the industries, which have stronger employment effect in southern Taiwan, are construction, iron & steel industry, and wholesale & retail industry. Income effects reveal that the industries, which have greater income effect in southern Taiwan, are construction, iron & steel, and wholesale & retail industry. Scenario 2, output effects reveal that the industries which have bigger output effect in southern Taiwan are other chemical products, electrical & electronic machinery, precision instruments, which are induced by TSBIP, service industry, and wholesale & retail industry. Employment effects reveal that the employment effect in southern Taiwan is mainly observed in other chemical products, electrical & electronic machinery, precision instruments, which are induced by TSBIP, service industry, and other manufacturing. Income effects reveal that the industries, which have greater income effect in southern Taiwan, are in the same order as that of employment effect.