臺灣運輸部門建設規劃之經濟、能源與環境衝擊評估

Economic, Energy and Environmental Impact Analysis for Transport Infrastructure Investment in Taiwan

楊雲茗(Yun-Ming Yang)

指導教授 ： 張四立

國立臺北大學/公共事務學院/自然資源與環境管理研究所/碩士(2010年)

摘要

台灣日前經歷2008金融海嘯，為達到振興經濟以及環境保護之雙贏，政府實施「愛台十二建設」以提升國家競爭力；其中規劃興建之交通基礎建設主要為軌道運輸(鐵路、捷運)，與過去公路運輸一枝獨秀的情形有所不同。本研究之探討目的為檢視公路、鐵路、捷運基礎建設所分別帶來的經濟、能源及環境之三大效果。
由文獻蒐集之結果可知目前國際運輸部門減量政策中，交通基礎建設的建立對減量是相當有幫助的，可惜的是缺少量化之數據以佐證其效果。而本文之研究方法選用投入產出模型，用以評估重大投資案之經濟效益；此外，由國外學者發展出的量值混合投入產出模型則可以較真實地反映出整體經濟各部門間的能源及環境效益，由此，本研究選用此改良型投入產出模型分析該基礎建設投資所帶來的能源及環境衝擊。
研究結果顯示，產業關聯分析之結果說明軌道運輸部門具相當高的向後關聯程度及影響度，表示其對總體產業有刺激的作用；檢視運輸部門的就業乘數及所得乘數效果，皆顯示出軌道運輸部門具相當高之所得效果與就業效果；而透過能源使用乘數及二氧化碳排放乘數效果則顯示出軌道運輸部門比公路運輸部門之能源效益與環境效益來得高，其意義為該部門的能源密集度較低且二氧化碳之排放量也相對較低。此外，由單位投資所能創造之能源使用及二氧化碳排放效果而言，公路運輸建設的每百萬元投資所造成之能源投入及排放效果約為軌道運輸建設的2.7倍至4倍，顯示出陸上運輸中以軌道運輸基礎建設為能源使用較低、且屬於較低污染之運輸形式，因此未來交通建設應朝向低能源使用、低排放的軌道運輸發展，該策略對運輸部門減量具相當大之成效。

關鍵字

基礎建設 ； 運輸部門 ； 投入產出 ； 乘數分析 ； 減量

並列摘要

Taiwan has experienced “The Financial Tsunami” in 2008, for reviving the economy and protecting environment to achieve the win-win situation, the government implemented "i-Taiwan 12 Projects" to enhance national competitiveness. The major transport infrastructure of this project is the rail transport (including railway, MRT), unlike the past situation always focus on the infrastructure of road transport. The purpose of this study is analyzing the economic, energy and environmental effects of the roads, railways, MRT infrastructure.
In reviewing the literature, shows that transport infrastructure establishment is very helpful for mitigation in the mitigation policy of the current international in the transport sector. However, the lack of quantitative data of transport infrastructure establishment for mitigation of transport sector to support its effectiveness. The method of this research used is input-output model for assessing the economic benefits of the infrastructure projects. In addition, the hybrid input-output model that the foreign scholar developed can be more truthfully show the overall economy’s inter-sector energy and environmental benefits, thus, this paper used this modified input-output model to assess the energy and environmental impact of the infrastructure investment.
The results show that rail transport sector with a very high degree of backward linkage effect and index of backward linkage by inter-industrial linkage analysis, displaying the industry can stimulus the overall economy. Viewing the employment multiplier and income multiplier of transport sector, the rail transport sector has a very high degree of income and employment effects. The energy multiplier and the carbon dioxide emissions multiplier of the rail transport sector is better than the road transport sector, the energy efficiency and environmental benefits are more high, and that shows the rail transport sector are less energy-intensive and the emissions of carbon dioxide is relatively low. In addition, per million NT dollars of the road transport infrastructure investment develop the effect of energy inputs and emissions is more 2.7 times to four times than the rail transport infrastructure create, showing that rail transport infrastructure are lower energy use and lower pollution in the land transport(including road, rail and MRT), therefore, the future land transport form should be towards the rail transport, and the mitigation effectiveness is high in the transport sector strategy.

並列關鍵字

infrastructure ； transport sector ； input-output model ； multiplier analysis ； reduction

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