超級籃球聯賽不同上場時間球員對比賽勝負之影響

The influence of different playing time players upon game results in Super Basketball League

陳建樺(Chien-Hua Chen)

《嘉大體育健康休閒期刊》 17卷1期 (2018/04) Pp. 30-41

https://doi.org/10.6169/NCYUJPEHR.201804_17(1).03

摘要

目的：超級籃球聯賽為臺灣目前最高等級之籃球賽事，所有的選手都是國內籃球員中的一時之選，但是先發球員與替補球員的上場時間仍有相當大的差異，本研究為瞭解先發球員與替補球員效率指數及上場時間對比賽結果勝負之關係。方法：本研究以超級籃球聯賽8到13季冠軍賽組合隊伍之球員為研究對象，透過NBA Efficiency Rating公式將所有球員場上表現之數據換算為效率指數，再以羅吉斯迴歸進行統計分析，瞭解並預測球員效率指數與上場時間對比賽勝負之關係。結果：先發球員的上場時間顯著多於替補球員，在效率指數方面，勝隊先發球員最高，負隊先發球員次之，勝隊替補球員效率指數又優於負隊替補球員，討論：效率指數確實是比賽獲勝的一大關鍵，除了先發球員效率指數，替補球員效率指數較高的球隊，其勝率也相對較高，但不論先發球員或替補球員，其上場時間對於比賽的勝負皆無顯著相關，建議教練應適時適宜啟用替補球員上場比賽。本研究透過羅吉斯迴歸方程式對比賽勝率之預測正確率高達79.5%，可提供教練團更清楚的掌握球員效率指數與比賽勝負之關係，並可作為調度球員上場時間控制的參考。

關鍵字

先發球員 ； 替補球員 ； 調度 ； 預測

並列摘要

Purpose: Super Basketball League (SBL) is the highest level of basketball league in Taiwan, where the elite basketball athletes play during the regular season and playoffs. However, there is a substantial playing time difference between starting and bench players. This research is to understand the relationship between the efficiency index of starter and substitute player and the time of playing on the outcome of the competition. Methods: T In this research, the players of SBL 8-13 season championships are selected as the object of study. Through the NBA Efficiency Rating formula, the data of all players are converted into efficiency index, and then the logistic regression is used to study how player efficiency index and playing time is associated with winning or losing. Results: The results showed that starting players' playing time is significantly higher than that of the bench players. Starting players in the winning teams had the highest efficiency index, followed by the starting lineups in the losing teams. Similarly, the bench players from the winning teams also had a higher efficiency index when comparing to the bench players from the losing teams. Conclusion: This indicated that the efficiency index is the key to team success in the championship. On the other hand, playing time is proven not a factor to winning or losing among starting and bench players. Therefore, it is recommended that coaches should timely and appropriate increase the playing time for bench players. The logistic model of player efficacy index provided by this research explains 79.5% of winning or losing and should provide valuable reference for coaches.

並列關鍵字

Starting players ； bench players ； substantial ； prediction

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