中國面對科索沃獨立的尷尬處境

科索沃於2008年2月逕自宣佈獨立，中國態度十分曖昧。一方面中國沒有正式承認科索沃獨立，但另一方面，中國也沒有與俄羅斯及塞爾維亞站在同一陣線，強烈反對科索沃獨立，與其在1999年的作法並不相同。中國此次對科索沃獨立的謹慎作為，反映了中國的兩難困境。一方面，如果反對科索沃獨立到底，可能使中國面臨與支持科索沃獨立的美、英等國直接對立，與其不與大國衝突的和諧外交相違背，同時也可能使台灣與科索沃建交，使中國「一中原則全球化」出現更複雜的變數。如果中國支持科索沃獨立，不僅使中國與俄羅斯出現分歧，同時也無法處理西藏、新疆、與台灣追求獨立的主張。對長期認定國家承認＝建交＝入聯的台灣外交策略討圈而言，科索沃獨立凸顯了國家承認、建立邦交、與加入聯合國等議題的不同面向。科索沃有超過40國家承認獨立，但只有少數幾國與科索沃建立外交關係，同時聯合國對科索沃決議，還維持科索沃是塞爾維亞的自治省。科索沃的獨特例證對於追求正常化的台灣有高度啟發作用。

關鍵字

科索沃；美中俄關係；國家承認；兩岸關係

並列摘要

China holds an ambiguous attitude towards Kosovo's declaration of independence on February 2008. While China did not recognize Kosovo's independence, China did not side with Russia and Serbia in condemning Kosovo's actions. This was contradictory to the prediction that the Beijing government would reject Kosovo independence outright due to its concern of Tibetan, Xin-Qiang, and Taiwanese Independence. China's ”prudent” action reflects the dilemma China faces with the Kosovo issue. If China rejected Kosovo independence outright, the Beijing government might find itself dueling against the United States and the United Kingdom who support Kosovo's independence. If China accepts Kosovo's independence, this may downgrade China's relationship with Russia. Moreover, this may give Taiwan another diplomatic recognition which will make the dissemination of the ”one China principle” more difficult, let alone such action might encourage Tibet and Xin-Qiang to follow suit. The Kosovo issue also provides Taiwan with an interesting lesson to distinguish between ”country recognition”, ”establishing diplomatic relations”, and ”entering the United Nations”. The implication to practice is obvious.