二○二○年的國軍－軍事的威脅與組織的因應

Taiwan's Armed Forces at 2020: Military Challenges and Organizational Responses

陳文政(York Wen-Jenq Chen)

《台灣國際研究季刊》 6卷3期 (2010/09) Pp. 107-138

https://doi.org/10.29800/TLSQ.201009.0004

摘要

本文提出以「軍事效能」作爲分析國軍因應中國軍事挑戰的概念架構。軍事效能是軍隊自國家財力、人口、科技、人力資源等基本資源中創建軍事實力的能力。本文第一部份即針對與此一架構相關論述的評介並進行概念上的改良，將軍事效能視爲軍事組織轉化與創建軍事實力的能力與表現，以整合協調與靈敏反應爲指標。第二部份，本文分析中國人民解放軍在制空與導彈戰力的質量進步，將使得解放軍在2020年時擁有對台灣進行大規模作戰的決勝能力，此一威脅是我國國軍所必須因應的挑戰。第三部分，爲因應此一挑戰，本文從軍事效能的概念架構提出國軍應當在組織上更爲強化其在政治與戰略層面上的整合協調與靈敏反應之能力，以建立能夠因應解放軍軍事威脅的軍事實力。

關鍵字

軍事效能 ； 威脅評估 ； 台灣國軍 ； 組織能力

並列摘要

The author introduces the term of ”military effectiveness” as the conceptual framework for analyzing the possible responses of Taiwan's Armed Forces (TAF) in coping with China's military threats. Military effectiveness is defined here as the capacity to create military power from a state's basic resources in wealth, technology, population size, and human capital. The article begins with brief literatures reviews and conceptual refinements regarding such a conceptual framework. Military effectiveness is regarded as the capacity and performance that a military translate and establish its military power which itself is illuminated by two elements-integration and responsiveness. Next, the author turns to analyze the qualitatively and quantitatively growth of China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) in terms of aircrafts and missiles. These are critical for the PLA to achieve decisive victory in an all-out military conflict against the TAF. Last, the author argues, according to the conceptual framework of military effectiveness, that the TAF should enhance its organizational capacity of integration and responsiveness, at both political and strategic levels, in order to construct the capable military power to respond China's military challenges.

並列關鍵字

military effectiveness ； Taiwan's Armed Forces ； threat assessment ； organizational capacity

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