An Australia-China Free Trade Agreement: Managing an Elephant

本文主旨在探索澳洲與中國簽訂自由貿易協定的得失。就像任何國際條約一樣，澳洲必須在國內外的政治經濟因素中保持平衡。一方面，澳洲已藉由對反恐戰爭和侵略伊拉克的支持與美國提升防禦聯盟。澳洲與美國之間簽署的自由貿易協定多多少少與此一合作有關。因此，澳洲有與美國保持密切關係的政治和經濟原因。另一方面，中國的興起為澳洲近年來的經濟成長有所貢獻，尤其是在初級產品，至少在短期之內大多數澳洲人將會持續獲益。這筆有利可圖的貿易與兩個國家間的積極政治氣氛有關的程度是值得討論的問題，但這兩項因素似乎是互有關聯性。美國和中國之間的關係經常處於緊張狀態，與澳洲的利益最密切相關的是美國還是中國？取得兩國間的平衡是當下澳洲所努力嘗試去做，造成許多困難。此外，當澳洲從中國得到眼前的經濟利益時，後者可能成為再如何奮鬥也無法對付的強勢競爭者。雖然已有明確的勝敗關係，長期自由貿易協定(FTA)的優勢是否讓中國更容易具有競爭力還是個問題。目前澳洲國內對澳中FTA抱持樂觀者多於悲觀者，前者傾向於假設除非遭到挑釁，大象是可以訓練的而且溫馴的，他們也常以資訊封閉來堵住悲觀者的憂鬱之口。但是他們已逐漸發覺到無知與樂觀是相關的。

關鍵字

自由貿易；澳洲；中國；台灣；美國；國際關係

並列摘要

This paper explores the advantages and disadvantages of an FTA between Australia and China. As with any international agreement, Australia must balance political and economic factors at home and abroad. On the one hand, Australia's support for the war on terror and the invasion of Iraq has highlighted the defence alliance with the USA. The pending PTA between Australia and the USA is at least partly related to this cooperation. Hence, Australia has both political and economic reasons for maintaining close relations with the USA. On the other hand, China's rise has contributed to Australia's recent economic growth, especially the boom in primary products, and most Australians should continue to benefit, at least in the short term. The extent to which this favourable trade is related to a positive political climate between the two countries is open to question, but the two factors appear to correlate. Given that relations between the USA and China are often strained, would Australia's interests best be served by closer connections with the USA, or with China? Balancing both, as Australia is trying to do now, poses a range of difficulties. Furthermore, while Australia receives economic benefit from China at present, the latter may become an even more gigantic competitor against whom it will be vain to struggle. There are already clear winners and losers in the relationship, and the long-term advantages of an PTA that might make competition even easier for China must be called into question. Notwithstanding, perhaps Australia should seek an agreement as a gesture that might help to keep China on side.

並列關鍵字

free trade ； Australia ； China ； Taiwan ； USA ； international relations

國際替代計量

An Australia-China Free Trade Agreement: Managing an Elephant

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