動態住宅交易市場之研究

System Dynamics of the Residential Real Estate Market

藍俊雄(Chun-Hsiung Lan) ； 胡純英(Chun-Ying Hu)

《科學與工程技術期刊》 5卷1期 (2009/03) Pp. 57-70

https://doi.org/10.7117/JSET.200903.0057

摘要

無論是實務界或學術界到經濟學界等研究範圍，不動產交易過程實爲一門複雜且全方位的學科。近年來由於台灣經濟的不景氣、政策的欠缺健全，導致不動產交易市場的供需嚴重失調。有鑑於此，本研究透過以實務住宅交易市場所面臨的供需情況，針對住宅市場需求面的需求總量、需求期望，以及供給面的住宅供給總量等過程，藉由市場風險、區域家戶總數、中古屋數、新建住宅數、空屋數、住宅價格、貸款利息等因素的交互影響並將政策影響、家戶收入所得、建商意願開發量加以探討。運用Vensim軟體將此一複雜且符合實際住宅交易市場的問題加以系統模式的建構，透過系統動態之模擬，使得實務面住宅交易市場情境得以進行動態模擬。 本研究模擬結果發現平均每戶所得與建商意願開發量有著正向的關係。此外當中古屋數量快速增加時，新建住宅量有下降的趨勢出現。再者本研究已成功地將長期以來對住宅交易市場僅限於在靜態探討的情況推廣到動態探討的層次。本研究乃運用Vensim套裝軟體進行模式構建與動態模擬，因此本研究具有高度的重現特性，亦即當參數臨時發生改變時，只要將其系統輸入參數加以修改就可輕易地模擬系統的行爲並可與未發生改變前進行分析比較，以評估總體改變的優劣。有鑑於此，本研究對住宅交易市場而言，著實提供一有價值的決策工具。

關鍵字

住宅交易市場 ； Vensim ； 模擬 ； 系統模式

並列摘要

Among practitioners, academics, and economists, the process of trading real estate appears to be a thoroughly complicated orientational issue. The cause of a serious imbalance in supply-and-demand in the Taiwanese residential real estate market is due to both depression in the economy and defective policies. In this study we mainly investigated the supply-and-demand aspect of the this market by focusing on both the total and the expected demand, the total supply of residences as well as the market risks, the total number of households, the number of moderately old houses, the number of new houses, the number of remnant houses, the unit price of a house per ground level, the mortgage-loan interest rate, and the goodwill of building contractors. A dynamic systems model was constructed by Vensim software to practically simulate this complicated market.
The simulation results indicated that a positive relationship exists between the average household income and the goodwill of the building contractor; moreover, when the number of moderately old residences rapidly increases, the number of new ones decreases. Furthermore, our study successfully extended static research to dynamic for rendering the results closer to reality. Finally, this study can be readily replicated because the simulation procedure was implemented by an academic software package. Therefore, this research can be regarded as a valuable decision-support tool because it can be easily applied to other cases by changing only the input parameters.

並列關鍵字

residential real estate market ； Vensim ； simulation ； system dynamics model