以建築產業行為模型探討影響房屋價格與空屋之因素

The Research of the Influence Factors of Housing Price and Vacancies Based on The Behavior Model of Residential Construction Industry

林欣郿(Hsin-Mei Lin)

指導教授 ： 謝惠元

國立屏東科技大學/管理學院/企業管理系所/碩士(2015年)

https://doi.org/10.6346/NPUST.2015.00073

摘要

本研究以結構-行為-績效（S-C-P）理論架構，以產業行為模型探討影響實質房價與空屋之因素，針對臺灣20個縣市從2000年至2013年間共280個觀察值，採Pooled Cross-Sectional Time-Series之方式進行二階段最小平方法（2SLS）分析。實證發現影響房價因素較為建商力量及區域發展，而房價對於空屋呈現負向影響且顯著。空屋受供給面影響最大，且空屋數的增長，並不會對房價產生影響。因房屋市場呈現兩極化，高價位合乎需求的房屋沒有空屋；低價格不合需求的房屋仍存在相當多，如結構性空屋。空閒房屋不等於供過於求之存貨，而是有投資、置產與投機需求之房屋，是一人持有多戶房屋之現象。在供給面導向下之建築產業，建商較易產生集體不理性行為。在事件方面之影響，雖實價登錄制度實施而使資訊透明化，反而會讓消費者受環境權變影響，亦會出現集體不理性之現象；奢侈稅的推行，對於房價與空屋無明顯影響。在產業行為分析，供需因素與事件因素對建築產業有明顯的影響，這與現實相符。建議政府可從提高擁有第二戶以上房屋的持有成本，來減少投資與投機需求。於實施政策時，須全面性考量，尤其是外在環境因素。建商行為應重視差異化，並考慮競爭者策略或產業行為的跟從，避免全體採一致性行為。消費者可增加資訊過濾及判斷能力，避免因實價登錄而產生之不理性行為。

關鍵字

實質房價 ； 空屋 ； 理性行為 ； 資訊透明化 ； 助漲與助跌

並列摘要

This research is to analyze the benefit and influence of housing price and vacancies on the construction industry in Taiwan using Structure-Conduct-Performance (S-C-P) model. A sample of 280 observations in the 20 cities and counties in Taiwan during 2000-2013 was tested by Pooled Cross-Sectional Time-Series regression model. We use Two Stage Least Squares Method (2SLS) to analyze the influence factors of the vacancies and real housing price on the construction industry in Taiwan. The housing price is influenced by the supply side and regional development. Housing prices negatively influenced vacancies indicating irrationality of this market. Vacancies was decided mostly by supply side but it did not affect housing price. The housing market appears M type. Although high price vacancies were low indicating demands of quality house. However high vacancies accompanied with low price such as structural vacancies. Vacancies were not necessary oversupply or inventories of housing unit. Still they were houses needed by residential demand, speculation and investment as well.
Under supply side oriented developers were more inclined to group irrationality. Housing buyers also showed group irrationality and herding under the transparency of the housing market. As expected the factors of supply and demand sides and events caused significant influence on construction industry and behavior. To increase the holding costs of residential units can effectively control the demand of speculation and investment. In addition the implementation of government policy should consider structural factors to avoid exaggerating and exacerbating effects. Developer should consider differentiation and competitive dynamic to increase group rationality. House buyer should increase information filtering and judgement to avoid herding and group irrationality under the transparency of housing price.

並列關鍵字

Real house price ； Vacancies ； Construction behavior ； Information Transparency ； Exaggerating and Exacerbating Effects

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