臺北市各區人口、家庭所得與房屋價格關聯性之研究

A Study on the Relationship among the Population, Family Income and Housing Price of Various Districts in Taipei City

李佳珍(Jia-Jan Lee) ； 盧永祥(Yung-Hsiang Lu) ； 丁安正(An-Cheng Ting)

《商業現代化學刊》 6卷3期 (2012/06) Pp. 243-254

https://doi.org/10.6132/JCM.2012.6.3.13

摘要

過去的相關文獻對於不動產方面的各項研究皆甚完備，但大多數偏向房屋購買力的指數分析或購屋能力之研究，較少探討一個區域內，何以影響房屋價格互動的主要因素，本文選取三項變數，即人口、家庭所得與房屋價格，蒐集臺北市各區的統計資料，運用Panel Data的分析方法，觀察三項變數之間的因果關係。研究結果發現，臺北市12個行政區域的人口變化多寡，十年來與房屋價格沒有顯著的因果關係，顯示都市人口集中的地方不必然與房屋價格的變化有所關聯。現象解釋，房屋價格高的地方，必然需要較高的所得水準才能支撐較高的房價，而較高的所得水準也必然推升較高的房價。本文的實證分析結果顯示與實際的社會現象相符合，也合理解釋了臺北市的所得水準，普遍高於其他都市的原因。

關鍵字

房價 ； 家庭所得 ； 人口 ； Panel VAR

並列摘要

There are many researches that have been conducted in real estate field; however, most of them are related to the analysis of buying power of real estate. Since fewer studies have been done to investigate the main factors those effects the housing price in a certain area, we select population, household income, and housing prices as the 3 variables in our study. We will collect data in different districts in Taipei city and use Panel data to analyze the corrections among these three variables. We found that the population densities in the 12 districts in Taipei are not significantly correlated to the price of housing. The result of this study indicates that urban population density is not necessary related to the change of housing prices while household income is significantly related to the change of housing prices. This might be explained that higher housing price needs to be supported by higher household income and therefore higher housing price results in higher housing price. The result of our empirical analysis confirms the actual situation and explains why people in Taipei have higher income than people in other cities.

並列關鍵字

Housing Price ； Household Income ； Population ； Panel VAR