熱錢對中國金融市場發展影響之探討

2003年以來，隨著亞洲金融危機的結束和中國國內經濟的快速發展，人民幣呈現升值預期，加之美元利率持續走低，企業、個人和機構紛紛將境外資產調回，部分境外投機資金借各種正常和非正常渠道，採取分散、滲透的方式流人。國際熱錢之所以會流入中國1主要是受人民幣升值預期以及美元的貶值的影響。2003年起，中國外匯收支呈持續大額順差趨勢，平均每年新增外匯儲備超過2800億美元。在極端條件下，熱錢大規模撤離可能引發金融危機，從流動性過剩在短時間內轉變成流動性短缺，對經濟持續穩定發展影響較大；最近（2011年2月初），在香港出現接連幾天街頭排隊兌換人民幣的擁擠現象，結合最近數千億囤港熱錢流入中國內地投機的消息及近期農產品接二連三漲價問題,應可斷定中國經濟又開始進入一個熱錢進場高峰。但和前幾次不同的是，這一波來勢凶猛，且難以辨認，甚至因為從股市和樓市行情的清淡中，感覺到這次投機的策略和盈利方式都發生質的變化，相對在風險控管也需高度警戒，以防熱錢過多造成中國資產泡沫化危機之產生。本研究將對近年熱錢持續湧進中國，對中國整體金融市場發展之可能影響與未來走勢進行深入分析。

關鍵字

熱錢；資產泡沫化；人民幣；中國金融市場

並列摘要

Since 2003, accompanied by the end of the Asian financial crisis and the rapid development of China economy, the RMB appreciation is expected to appreciate, U.S. interest rates continued to depreciate, enterprises, individuals and institutions have to repatriate foreign assets, in another part, by a variety of foreign speculative capital and non-normal normal channels scattered, and inspired the inflow of hot momey into China. The reason why the international hot money flows into China is mainly due to expectations of RMB appreciation and depreciation of the US dollar. Since 2003, the average annual increase of China's foreign exchange reserves over 280 billion U.S. dollars. In extreme conditions, large-scale withdrawal of hot money may lead to financial crisis, from the excess liquidity in the short time into a liquidity shortage, the economic impact of more sustainable and stable development. Though, unlike previous occasions, it is ferocious and difficult to recognize, even as the stock and real estate market, the feel of this speculative way the strategy and profitability have undergone a qualitative change in the latest periods. China government should be on high alert in risk management to prevent too much hot money came into and resulted in asset bubble caused by continuous hot money generated. In this research, the author tries to analyze the impacts of hot money toward overall financial market development and future trends that may affect in China.