後ECFA兩岸經貿與金融發展趨勢之分析

Latter ECFA both Banks Economics and Trade and Analysis of the Finance Trend of Development

趙永祥 ； 陳旭播

《全球管理與經濟》 6卷1期 (2010/06) Pp. 42-69

https://doi.org/10.6565/JGME.2010.6(1).3

摘要

2008 年全球金融風暴發生之後，經濟衰退與金融機構的公司治理問題迅速擴散至全球，亞洲地區也無法倖免，東亞國家的對外貿易都相繼出現大幅衰退，導致經濟成長出現程度不一的下挫，甚至嚴重衰退；而持續下滑的經濟表現，多數東亞國家在2009年第2季出現觸底，之後便逐漸改善（經濟成長提高、衰退縮小或衰退轉為成長）。在金融海嘯後，中國在龐大的政府力量下也大量對市場供應資金，企圖透過擴大消費及公共建設填補工業產能，此舉能否奏效仍待時間考驗。台灣此時與中國建立經濟合作關係，其風險是正式開放大量資金進入中國，一起承擔中國面臨風險。長遠來看，台灣勢必得和中國合作才能有效帶動台灣的經濟成長，但是短期經濟循環的風險，更是台灣的企業應該更慎重考慮的。中國資本市場的發展畢竟尚未成熟，需有一經濟合作的架構來規範遊戲規則，以減低台商經營的風險與成本，隨著兩岸經貿交流自80年代起蓬勃發展，時值今日，雙邊經濟及產業價值鏈重要性與日俱增，是故兩岸經濟合作架構協議（ECFA）之概念浮出水面，兩岸並於2010 年6月29日正式簽署協議ECFA。未來，我國應注意大陸擬定之策略與對未來兩岸ECFA互動的可能情境，儘早規劃ECFA簽訂後的商品，以及服務業市場「自由化」、開放大陸來台投資之進程，以穩健因應可能帶來之挑戰；此外，面對後ECFA 時代下，更應順應國際產業發展趨勢，及早擘劃我國產業政策。本研究主要發現有：台商對兩岸政府的依賴程度互有消長，台商希望儘速通航節省成本，全球化經貿架構下的兩岸經濟分工隱然形成。並提出：兩岸政府應建構和平互動的政經環境、全球運籌佈局下的台商投資策略思考以及運用台灣的優勢資源三項建議。本文從政策與經濟發展趨勢的觀點探討後ECFA時代台灣與中國大陸在2010年經濟與金融未來發展趨勢並提出具體性建議。

關鍵字

金融海嘯 ； 兩岸經貿 ； 兩岸金融發展 ； 全球金融風暴 ； 兩岸經濟合作架構協議（ECFA）

並列摘要

Since the global financial crisis happened in August, 2008, the economic depression and financial corporate governance spread to most countries, in the meanwhile, the interaction of both sides has seldom made concrete progress since 2000. After both sides participated in WTO, two sides have to face the challenges containing the differences of politics and economy, the confronting position of the system of government and the intense exchange of economy. Most importantly, how to build up the interactive channel of politics and economy is an urgent topic for both sides. The studying theory of this thesis is use the method of mutual demonstration from the vision of politics, economics, and historical method. Because the politics, economics, and political economy are related to the concepts of government, nation, and market, this thesis use the integrating vision to discuss the topic about how Taiwan businessmen invest in Mainland China. The basis of the thesis is depended on free market theory and national economism theory, assisting with the dependent theory and new liberalism focusing on global trend and the economical relationship of cross-strait relies on each other more and more. As time goes by, the concept and ideas of both sides will integrate gradually. Therefore, both sides are trying to set up the duct of communication by legislation. Therefore, if both sides want to make benefits, they should restart to negotiate, based on ”Mini-Three Links” to expand the way of communication.There are some points in this research: 1. The strategies of the investment of Taiwan's corporations are inf1uenced by cross-strait' politics. 2. The vision of Taiwan's companies to the market of Mainland China is gradually fading away. 3. The dependence of Taiwan's companies on both side governments is rising and falling. 4. What Taiwan's corporations want is to have air traffic or navigation proceeded as soon as possible for saving the cost. 5. Taiwan's corporations hope both governments can put the political problem aside and do their best to develop economy. There are some suggestions: the government of both sides should establish a peaceful and interactive environment of politics and economy and Taiwan's corporation should think about the strategy about global overall arrangement and how to use the advantageous resources in Taiwan. For the future, the key point of Taiwan's success is the cooperation between the government and corporations in Taiwan and to take the strategy of rooting in Taiwan and mapping out an overall planning and management in the world. Eventually, building up a harmonious cross-Strait relationship as quickly as possible is the best profit to Taiwan's corporations and the people of both sides in post ECFA era.

並列關鍵字

Financial Disaster ； Cross-strait economy and trade ； Cross-strait Financial Development ； Global Financial Crisis ； Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement(ECFA)