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從亞投行與一帶一路看中國海外經濟版圖擴張與對台灣經濟發展之影響
From Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank to Investigate China Overseas Expansion and the Impact on Taiwan's Economic Development
摘要
2015年3月博鰲亞洲論壇年會期間，大陸國家發改委、外交部、商務部聯合發布了「推動共建絲綢之路經濟帶和21世紀海上絲綢之路的願景與行動」，這是第一份關於「一帶一路」的政府白皮書，也是具有國家戰略性規劃的文件。「一帶一路」不是一個實體和機制，而是合作發展的理念和倡議，是依靠中國與有關國家和地區既有的雙多邊機制，藉助既有的、行之有效的區域合作平台，「一帶一路」橫跨亞歐非，沿線涉及64個國家、44億人口，基礎建設規模相當可觀，每年約需投入1兆美元，加上沿線貿易總額至少1-2億美元，已成為各國虎視眈眈的投資標的，也是為何亞洲基礎設施投資銀行（以下簡稱亞投行）能吸引50多個國家搶先參與的誘因。臺灣的「悶經濟」已有一段日子，遲遲找不到出路，而亞投行和「一帶一路」在推動基礎建設過程所引生出來的商機十分可觀，臺灣擁有產業技術實力的企業，即可藉由加入亞投行參與「一帶一路」建設，筆者認為，這也是臺灣經濟要「翻轉」的大好機會。長期以來，臺灣在參與亞洲區域整合的道路上顛簸不前，雖然也是亞洲開發銀行的創始成員國，卻一直無法發揮作用。而今面對「一帶一路」建設，以及亞投行的登場，理應有一番新思維來應對外部新形勢的巨大變動。尤其「一帶一路」在亞投行龐大金融支撐下，將進一步推進亞歐區域聯結，必然牽動現有兩岸經貿投資關係，也將衝擊臺灣企業的對外發展，所以本研究將深度剖析台灣參加「亞投行」之好處與對台灣未來經濟發展之可能影響，與「一帶一路」對台灣經濟發展的商機和挑戰與對國內產業界可能帶來的影響進行分析。
並列摘要
The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) is a proposed international financial institution which is focused on supporting infrastructure construction in the Asia-Pacific region. The bank was proposed as an initiative by the government of China and supported by 37 regional and 20 non-regional members Prospective Founding Members, 53 of which have signed the Articles of Agreement that form the legal basis for the proposed bank. With massive $4 trillion currency reserves, China wants to not only purchase the good will of its many neighbors by lavishing multi-billion infrastructure projects, but it also wants to find more sustainable and tangible opportunities to invest its huge foreign exchange cache. China has stepped closer to claiming full-fledged economic leadership in Asia by officially launching the AIIB, which has been the centerpiece of the Xi administration's efforts to enhance Beijing's influence. The AIIB is part of Xi's ＂Peripheral Diplomacy＂, which it announced in October 2013 in an effort to win the favor of neighboring countries estranged by China's territorial expansionism. AIIB and One Belt One Road (OBOR) are the two engines in promoting the process of infrastructure which are embedded good opportunities to expand China overseas expansion very progressively. Taiwan has the technical strength, and can be enhanced her power to enter into wider Asian market via AIIB and OBOR. It's a good opportunity to ＂flip＂ Asian market form Taiwan's future economic development. For the past few years, Taiwan has been unable to play an important role to compete with the other Asian countries. Although, now facing AIIB and One Belt One Road (OBOR) coming threats, Taiwan government should have some new ideas and strategies to deal with huge changes coming from China overseas expansion policy.