十九大後「一帶一路」政策對中國經濟全球擴展之分析

An Analysis of the Global Expansion of China's Economy via the ＂One Belt and One Road＂ Policy after the 19th National Congress of China

趙永祥(Yuang- Shiang Chao) ； 邱素津(Su-Chin Chiu)

《全球管理與經濟》 14卷1期 (2018/06) Pp. 39-80

https://doi.org/10.6565/JGME.201806_14(1).0004

摘要

「一帶一路」橫跨亞歐非，沿線涉及66個國家、44億人口，基礎建設規模相當可觀，每年約需投入1兆美元，加上沿線貿易總額至少1-2億美元，已成為各國虎視眈眈的投資標的，也是為何「亞洲基礎設施投資銀行」(以下簡稱亞投行)能吸引50多個國家搶先參與之誘因。2018年起，「一帶一路」目前已進入務實合作階段，當前中國大陸在國家主席習近平倡議「一帶一路」政策中與相關國家共建「一帶一路」的經濟共享經濟帶，勢必會面臨如何與大國關係進行融合交流是一重要議題。大陸提出「一帶一路」戰略，隱含過去的「韜光養晦」外交方針，已全面轉向「有所作為」。今後應以亞洲國家為重點方向，率先實現亞洲互聯互通；以經濟走廊為依托，建立亞洲互聯互通的基本框架；以交通基礎設施為突破，實現亞洲互聯互通的早期收穫；以建設融資平台為抓手，打破亞洲互聯互通的瓶頸；本研究將深度剖析「一帶一路」政策對中國經濟版圖擴展之機會與挑戰，並對於中國「一帶一路」政策對於未來全球經濟發展可能影響與挑戰進行深度分析。

關鍵字

「亞洲基礎設施投資銀行」 ； 「一帶一路」 ； 中國 ； 中國經濟版圖 ； 投資風險

並列摘要

＂One Belt and One Road (OBOR) policy expands across Asia, Africa and Europe, there are 66 countries and 4.4 billion people along the OBOR route. The scale of infrastructure construction is quite impressive. About 1 trillion U.S. dollars will be invested by each year. With the total trade volume of at least 1-2 billion U.S. dollars along the route, it has become an attractive target for investment in various countries, At present, the leaders of ASEAN countries expect that nearly 40 countries will join the ＂Belt and Road＂ economic umbilical cord and hope that the resources and resources of China's capital, technology and manpower can be shared through the ＂One Belt and One Road＂ policy. Therefore, the infrastructure and economy of OBOR economic-connected countries with massive $4 trillion currency reserves, China wants to not only purchase the good will of its many neighbors by lavishing multi-billion infrastructure projects, but it also wants to find more sustainable and tangible opportunities to invest its huge foreign exchange cache. The OBOR is an important policy of Xi's ＂Peripheral Diplomacy＂, with making efforts to win the favor of neighboring countries estranged by China's territorial expansionism. One Belt One Road (OBOR) is currently an important engine in promoting the bridge which is embedded good opportunities to expand China overseas expansion and to reduce the investment risk with the neighboring countries very progressively. This research discusses about ＂One Road, One Belt＂ policy to analyze deeply its strategic purpose, further the attitudes toward ＂One Road and One Belt＂ to connect each country to extend the economic influence. This research will provide a deep analysis of the ＂One Belt and One Road＂ policy and the opportunities and challenges for the expansion of China's economic territory in-depth analysis of the possible impact and challenges.

並列關鍵字

Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) ； One Belt One Road (OBOR) Policy ； China ； China Economic Map ； Investment Risk