國際仲裁對南海情勢與區域政治之影響

The Influence of International Arbitration on the South China Sea Situation and Regional Politics

蔡明彥(MING-YEN TSAI)

《台灣國際法季刊》 13卷2期 (2016/06) Pp. 29-51

摘要

本文主要探討國際仲裁對南海情勢及區域政治產生的影響，研究內容包括檢視南海國際仲裁的過程與結果、國際社會反應，以及國際仲裁結果公佈後南海情勢最新發展。本文認為美國與國際社會在處理南海問題時，仍將避免影響和中國關係納入考量。在南海情勢未來動態發展過程中，如何避免緊張情勢升高、防止武裝衝突發生，將比如何解決爭議更受重視。然而，中國將可藉此機會，利用加強巡邏執法、加速人工島礁建設、部署軍事設施等動作，讓南海「現狀」朝有利於中國的方向發展。

關鍵字

南海仲裁 ； 美中關係 ； 自由航行任務 ； 九段線 ； 亞太再平衡

並列摘要

This paper intends to examine the impacts caused by the ruling of the Permanent Court of Arbitration on the situations in the South China Sea and regional politics. It explores international arbitration results, international reactions, and the latest developments in the South China Sea. The paper argues that the United States and international community have been very cautious on handling South China Sea issues so as to avert an overall confrontation with China. The first priority has been given to prevent armed clashes rather than to resolve the disputes. Under this circumstance, China will use the opportunities to enhance maritime patrols, build artificial islands, and deploy military hardware in the South China Sea, with the aim to shape a new status quo in China's favor.

並列關鍵字

Arbitration on the South China Sea ； U.S.-China relations ； Freedom of Navigation Operations ； Nine-dash line ； Rebalancing toward the Asia-Pacific

參考文獻

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"Carter: Asia-Pacific Will Continue to 'Rise' With Strong Security Architecture," U.S. Department of Defense, May 30, 2015, via https://www.defense.gov/News/Article/Article/604750/carter-asia-pacific-will-continue-to-rise-with-strong-security-architecture

"Chairman’ s Statement of the 28th and 29th ASEAN Summits, Vientiane," September 6-7, 2016, via http://asean.org/storage/2016/08/Final-Chairmans-Statement-of-the-28th-and-29th-ASEAN-Summits-rev-fin.pdf

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