從周易循環、平衡的天道觀看天災與人口之研究－以民國47年至99年的台灣為研究對象

A Study of Natural Disasters and Population from the Cycling-and-Balance Perspective of Book of Changes: With Special Reference to Taiwan, 1958-2010

耿志宏(Chih-Hung Keng)

《華人前瞻研究》 7卷2期 (2011/11) Pp. 1-20

https://doi.org/10.6428/JCTF.201111.0001

摘要

隨著年齡的成長，人也逾「知天命」之年，看到許多方面由盛轉衰，內心百感交集；深思之後，覺得和易經「循環、平衡」的道理有關。進一步去想：盛衰的過程，是不是有「規律」可以加以探究？孟子云：「五百年必有王者興」〈公孫丑下•第十三章〉中國的歷史皆是「一治一亂」，為什麼亂？當然都與人的生存有關，馬爾薩斯的人口論指出：「人是按照幾何級數增加」。我們所生存的地球、國家，都是有限的空間，而人又是生態環境破壞的最大殺手；因此，古代解決「人口問題」的方式就是「天災」、「人禍」；現代解決的方式，我想：還是「天災」、「人禍」；只不過，現代核武太可怕，沒有任何一個國家敢輕易地開啟。所以，二次世界大戰之後，只有小規模的戰爭。可是「天災」呢？全世界的天災愈來愈多，但願不要「明天過後」！易經是一部講「變」的道理的書，變之中有不變。儒家所追尋的是「中道」，即「平衡」的道理。綜觀各種學說，無論自然科學。或人文科學，皆須講求「平衡」；例如：會計要借、貸平衡、汽車要四輪平衡。目前，大至整個地球，小至所處的環境，都失去平衡，而宇宙間自有一種力量，使其調整到平衡，此即中華文化的智慧－由「循環反復」的道理。人類在往前發展的過程中，科技固然解決了一些問題，卻又製造了另外的問題，正如西方寓言故事中云：人把石頭推下山，又把石頭推上山；不斷地做這些蠢事。中廣新聞網(2008/02/21 16:30)一則新聞：「衛星圖像新發現或可解馬雅文明消失之謎。這些科學家利用一個偵察衛星拍攝的圖像，在瓜地馬拉密林中新發現五處瑪雅文明遺址，包含神廟等幾百個建築遺跡。這種衛星拍攝的遙距探測圖像能突破雲層和濃霧阻檔，看清楚地表的實況。科學家認為這些衛星圖像或許能提供瑪雅文明神秘消失的答案。科學家之前研判瑪雅文明高度發展，人口爆炸性增長，促使瑪雅人不斷砍伐林地，開墾發展農業。不過不斷破壞森林的結果造成地區性氣溫上升、降水量下降，最終水源枯竭。瑪雅人不得不四散他鄉，整個文明因此崩解。」在全球面臨如此眾多的問題中，治亂既然和人有關，傳統文化講「節儉」、「節制慾望」，提供給人類新的思維，而不是十八世紀以來，西方向外擴張，以武力搶奪資源和殖民地，甚至迷信科技萬能。所以當全球新興四家都在追求經濟成長，是不是也能思考在「循環之中找尋平街」？

關鍵字

易經 ； 瑪雅文明 ； 循環 ； 平衡

並列摘要

As we grow older, approaching the age to understand Destiny, we see many things turning from prosperity to poverty, feeling sentimental; after serious consideration, we think the phenomenon is related to the ”cycling” and ”balance” as advanced in Book of Changes. We wish to further explore whether there is a rule governing all the ups and downs. Mencius advocated that a successful king rises every five hundred years. As Chinese history shows, orderliness and disorderliness come alternatively. Then, why is the world in disorder? It must concern our survival. Thomas Robert Malthus in his work ”An essay on the principle of population” noted that population increases geometrically. The earth and the countries we dwell in are limited space and we human beings are the one that really kills the environment. Hence, in the ancient times, one key to overcoming the population problems is natural disasters or man-made errors. But still now, we take the best way to conquer such a problem is again natural disasters or man-made errors. Nevertheless, nuclear weapons are so destructive that nobody dares to resort to it. That is also why there were only minor battles after the World War II. Then, what about natural disasters? We have been facing more and more disasters and, hopefully, the story of the movie ”Day after tomorrow” will not happen to us! Book of Changes is a book that analyzes the true meaning of change, where some things change and some things do not change. The so-called ”mean” as pursued by the Confucian school simply refers to ”balance”. To sum up, either science or human art proposes to strike a balance. For instance, in accounting, borrowing and lending must be balanced out. Another example is that we have to redress a balance among the four wheels of cars. At present, entities as big as the earth and as small as the surroundings around us all hang in balance. Nevertheless, a power in the universe will come to maintain a balance in everything, which is the wisdom of Chinese culture, that is, things are restored and renovated like a circle. In the process of development, technology has solved some problems while at the same time it has created some other crises. This is exactly what we have read in the western fable: people pushed the stone up and down the hill; they were doing the stupid thing over and over again. A piece of news from BCC reported that the images captured by the satellite might disclose a mystery regarding the disappearance of the Mayan civilization. These scientists used a satellite image and spotted five newly discovered Maya ruins, including hundreds of architectural monuments like temples in the Guatemala jungle. The satellite image and distance detection can break through the clouds and blocking fog, looking into the surface. Scientists think that satellite images may be able to provide answers to the mysterious disappearance of the Mayan civilization. Scientists judged that the Mayan civilization highly flourished leading to the explosion of population, which prompted the Maya to continue to exploit the forest land and cultivate agricultural development. However, the results of the unremitting forest destruction caused regional warming, decline in rainfall, and, ultimately, water depletion. Therefore, Mayas scattered into four winds, hence the collapse of the civilization. As there are so many problems the whole world faces now and they are all related to human beings, our traditional ideas such as frugality and desire suppression actually provide new food for thought. On the contrary, it is not the outward expansion of western countries to grab resources and colonies or the superstition as to the omnipotence of technology that counts. So, when all the rising countries in the globe are pursuing economic progress and growth, should we not seek to reach a balance in the cycling world?

並列關鍵字

Book of Changes ； Maya Civilization ； Cycling ； Balance