考慮市場需求不確定與匯率變動下建立跨國企業之全球產銷運籌決策模型

Developing the Global Logistic Decision Model for Multinational Enterprises under Considering Exchange Rate Volatility and Demand Uncertainty

黃明官(Ming-Guan Huang)

《商管科技季刊》 14卷3期 (2013/09) Pp. 305-331

摘要

現今企業基於市場、客戶及生產成本考量而傾向將其製造或組裝基地設置全球各處而形成一跨國營運企業，此一經營策略可取得即時掌握與應對市場需求變化、縮短訂購前置時間、提升供貨彈性與交期配合能力及降低運送成本等營運優勢，同時亦可尋覓提供較低廉之土地、廠房及人工成本的製造地點以提昇成本競爭力與增加銷貨利潤。不僅如此，由於銷售市場或主要客戶亦可能遍佈世界各地，為提高顧客服務品質及取得時基競爭優勢，企業可能另在全球數個據點建立發貨中心。然而，跨國企業的　挑戰之一即為必須作成艱鉅繁雜之全球產銷運籌決策以尋求達成最大營運利益。本研究即試圖發展出可使跨國企業產生最大利潤的全球產銷運籌決策模型，特別強調的是，該一模型中同時考量下一產銷期中市場需求不確定性與匯率變動性，藉以提高所發展模型方法之有效性。且為求解此一困難且複雜的決策問題，本研究乃結合實質選　擇權分析法與邊際分析法及最大利潤有限流量網路分析模式以快速求得其近似最佳解。最後，透過數值實例驗證所發展之模型方法的實用性與正確性。

關鍵字

運籌管理 ； 全球產銷運籌決策 ； 跨國企業 ； 需求不確定 ； 匯率變動

並列摘要

Modern large-scale enterprises often intend to found a multinational enterprise that the manufacturing or assembling bases are located worldwide as result of allowing for marketplace, customer and production cost. The multinational operation strategy can get the advantages on managing timely the requirement change, reducing the lead time, enhancing the distribution flexibility and capability for meeting the required due date, and cutting down the transportation cost. Additionally, these multinational enterprises search for a location with bringing cheaper costs on land, plant and labor that could facilitate cost competitiveness and enhance the sale profits. Moreover, it also should be expected that marketplaces for a typical multinational enterprise spread out worldwide. Consequently, the multinational enterprise would establish several distribution centers or hubs locating on world-wide zones for the sake of promoting customer service quality and obtaining time-based competition advantage. Following such a reformation, a challenge confronted by multinational enterprises is that a complicated global logistic operation must be implemented in order for acquiring the maximal business benefit. In view of this, this study endeavors to develop a global logistic decision model, which can gain the maximal expected profit. Meantime, it is exceptionally emphasized that volatility on exchange rate and uncertainty on market demand during the next selling period are simultaneously taken into account so as to improve the effectiveness for the developed model here. To this end, this study integrates the real options approach with the marginal analysis and maximum profit capacitated flow network mode to straightforwardly and rapidly work out the optimal solution. Finally, the workability and accuracy for the developed decision model here are verified by using numerical instance.

並列關鍵字

Logistic Management ； Global Logistic Decision Model ； Multinational Enterprise ； Demand Uncertainty ； Exchange Rate Volatility

參考文獻

呂俊德、黃郁琮(2007)。3C 事業運籌體系再造及其電子化環境建置之個案研究。電子商務學報。9(3)，529-553。

湯玲郎、李金峰(2005)。兩岸分工與全球運籌管理之系統動態研究。科技管理學刊。10(3)，1-20。

陳銘崑、廖一青(2004)。OEM 接單型態下電子化協同設計參考模式之研究。工業工程學刊。21(4)，395-408。

黃旭男、蘇紀維、洪廣朋(2002)。電子商務環境下臺灣地區電腦系統產業全球運籌管理模式之決定因素。管理與系統。9(1)，11-27。

Amin, K.,Jarrow, R. A.(1991).Pricing foreign currency options using stochastic interest rates.Journal of International Money and Finance.10,310-329.