2016年總統選舉桃竹苗客家／非客家選民支持蔡英文的因素比較

臺灣北部的客家族群主要居住在桃市、竹縣、苗縣，當地一向被視為藍營票倉，民進黨在歷屆總統選舉中從未在此地區獲勝。但是2016年總統大選，打著「客家人挺客家妹」口號參選的民進黨提名人蔡英文翻轉當地選情，首度在總統大選中成為得票最高者。桃竹苗為何變天？本研究針對當地支持蔡英文的客家／非客家選民進行探索性因素分析，發現對客家受訪者而言，貫穿蔡英文勝選各項因素構面的是與客家相關的元素。傳統考量──多數人的看法、家人親友的態度等是當地選民支持蔡英文的最主要的因素，但是蔡英文在2012年敗北後，積極強化自己客家妹的形象，似乎也產生效果──蔡英文被較多客家人接納、客家選民也更看重蔡英文參選對客家人的影響。另外，新媒體載具的使用、分享與訊息發表，也影響客家受訪者對蔡英文的支持。同時，蔡英文客家支持者中，年齡越輕者越傾向使用新媒體，也越容易在網路上交換選舉的各項資訊。相對地，非客家受訪者支持蔡英文的因素和客家受訪者有些區隔──非客家受訪者較重視蔡英文的能力和性別，但新媒體的高度使用反而沒有強大解釋效力。這個發現不但顯示2016年蔡英文的網路部署是奏效的，也說明在未來的當地選舉中，年輕人以及使用社群媒體程度較高的選民，是民進黨經營桃竹苗應鎖定的對象。

關鍵字

蔡英文； 2016年總統選舉；桃竹苗地區；客家妹；族群政治

並列摘要

A majority of Taiwanese Hakka people traditionally dwell in Taoyuan, Hsinchu County and Miaoli, where KMT has attained a higher support than DPP. However, Tsai Ying-wen in the 2016 Presidential Election surprisingly became the first DPP president candidate who won in this area, thus setting a record. This study aimed at determining factors leading to Tsai's victory by means of Factor Analysis of SPSS. It was found that traditional considerations, including majority's preference and family's attitude, were nevertheless the key factors leading to increase of support of Tsai, regardless of voters' ethnicity; however, Tsai's endeavors seemed to strengthen her connection with those Hakka people who considered Tsai with higher respect than before. Moreover, practices of new media and the younger generation seemed to be positive forces for Tasi in the election. On the other hand, non-Hakka interviewees attached more importance to Tsai's ability and sex, while active use of new media was not equally valued as Hakka voters. It was found that Tsai's placement of new media in the 2016 election was effective. It is suggested that younger voters and those who have heavier use of new media are to be targeted by DPP in future elections in this area.