臺灣地區集水區洪水流量之頻率分析

Flood Frequency Analysis of Watersheds in Taiwan

沈少文(Shaw-Wen Sheen)

《水保技術》 7卷1期 (2012/01) Pp. 11-21

https://doi.org/10.30040/JSWCT.201201.0002

摘要

本研究分析淡水河五堵、後龍溪打鹿坑、高屏溪三地門與卑南溪台東大橋流量測站歷年最大瞬時洪水流量資料，建立最大瞬時洪水流量─重現期距迴歸模式，計算推測重現期距5年─100年之洪水流量與其95%預測區間，研究發現淡水河五堵測站歷年最大瞬時洪水流量平均值是882秒立方公尺，後龍溪打鹿坑測站歷年最大瞬時洪水流量平均值是1,389秒立方公尺，高屏溪三地門測站歷年最大瞬時洪水流量平均值是1,696秒立方公尺，卑南溪台東大橋測站歷年最大瞬時洪水流量平均值是4,160秒立方公尺。研究發現淡水河五堵測站100年最大瞬時洪水流量是2,597秒立方公尺，其為歷年平均洪水流量2.95 倍，後龍溪打鹿坑測站100年估計最大瞬時洪水流量是5,423秒立方公尺，其為歷年平均洪水流量3.91倍，高屏溪三地門測站100年估計最大瞬時洪水流量是6,084秒立方公尺，其為歷年平均洪水流量3.59倍，卑南溪台東大橋測站100年估計最大瞬時洪水流量是12,987秒立方公尺，其為歷年平均洪水流量3.12倍。本研究認為站址標高影響歷年最大瞬時洪水流量之變異程度，研究結果可供相關水利單位參考，期望有助於臺灣地區集水區環境永續經營與管理。

關鍵字

洪水流量 ； 重現期距 ； 臺灣地區

並列摘要

The aim of this study is to analyze flood frequency in four watersheds of Taiwan. This study analyzes maximum annual flood series data of the Tan Shui River, Hou Lung Creek, Kao Pin Creek, and Pei Nan Creek. This study uses the regression equations to estimate flood quantities with return periods 5 to 100 years and 95% prediction intervals. Results show that at the Wu Tu station of the Tan Shui River the mean maximum annual flood is 882 cms, at the Ta Lu Keng station of the Hou Lng Creek 1,389cms, at the San Ti Men station of the Kao Pin Creek 1,696cms, and at the Tai Tung Bridge station of the Pei Nan Creek 4,160 cms. Results also show that at the Wu Tu station of the Tan Shui River the 100-year flood is 2,597cms, 2.95 times of the mean maximum annual flood. At the Ta Lu Keng station of the Hou Lng Creek the 100-year flood is 5,423cms, 3.91 times of the mean maximum annual flood. At the San Ti Men station of the Kao Pin Creek the 100-year flood is 6,084cms, 3.59 times of the mean maximum annual flood. At the Tai Tung Bridge station of the Pei Nan Creek the 100-year flood is 12,987cms, 3.12 times of the mean maximum annual flood. This study concludes that altitude affects the variability in maximum annual flood.

並列關鍵字

Flood Discharge ； Return Period ； Taiwan