降雨頻率分析之研究

降雨是影響水文設計或工程進度的重大因素，因此如何從過去的降雨記錄資料中，利用各種統計方式來求得可靠且適當的降雨分佈，以作為各種水利工程設計之參考依據，是一項非常重要的課題。在本研究中，收集中央氣象局台北站一百年雨量資料，以長延時降雨為對象，並且以年最大日雨量序列與年超出日雨量序列作分析比較，以各種分佈理論來套配，而最後以卡方檢定和標準誤差加以比較其適合性。研究結果顯示，皮爾森第三型(Pearson TypeⅢ)分佈不管在年最大或年超出序列都為最好的分佈情形。

關鍵字

年超出序列；水文設計；年最大序列

並列摘要

Precipitation is a significant factor for hydraulic designs and project schedule control. It is a very important subject by using the past rainfall records and certain analysis methods to find the distributions of rainfall for various hydraulic engineering designs. In this study the rainfall data for one hundred years are collected from the Central Weather Bureau in the Taipei Rainfall Station. This study is focus on the long duration of rainfall analysis. Using the annual maximum series and the annual exceedance series of daily rainfall to analyze and to fit each distribution. The Goodness-of-Fit Test and the Standard Error Method are used to compare the feasibility of the distributions. The results of this study show that the Pearson TypeⅢ distribution is the best choice for both annual maximum series and annual exceedance series analysis.