台灣汽車潤滑油灰色市場結構探討：系統動態學模型

灰色市場現象充斥在世界各國之間與許多商品市場。而台灣是一個典型國際貿易盛行的島國經濟體系，灰色市場亦無所不在，例如：進口車市場、汽車潤滑油市場、高級化妝品市場、名牌服飾市場等，這些情形造成行銷通路的複雜與混亂，更是品牌擁有者與進口代理商的行銷通路難題。以台灣汽車潤滑油市場為例，2001年汽車潤滑油用量高達1,600萬加侖，而汽車潤滑油品牌高達200種之多，足見其商機之大與行銷通路之複雜且多元。其實台灣汽車潤滑油市場是一個複雜動態系統，它是由許許多多因素所組成的。因此，本文利用系統動態學，探討汽車潤滑油灰色市場之結構，嘗試解釋其系統行為。研究結果顯示其灰色市場結構主要是受到品牌擁有者、代理商、零售商與水貨商四個角色交互影響。最後本研究模擬當環境變數改變時，例如國際原油價格升高，對於品牌擁有者、代理商、水貨商之衝擊。

關鍵字

系統動態學；汽車潤滑油；灰色市場；真品平行輸入；行銷通路

並列摘要

Gray market is a common phenomenon exists in several merchandise markets across many countries. The major difference between gray market and black market is that counterfeits are traded in a black market while genuine goods are traded in a gray market. A gray market is especially rising and flourishing after genuine goods parallel importation is legalized. Taiwan, an island economy heavily depending on world trade, has several gray markets in various industries such as the imported car market, automotive lubricant market, exclusive cosmetic market, etc. These gray markets trouble brand managers, destroy price structure and disorder marketing channels. In this study, the gray market of car lubricant is selected as an example, of which there are up to 200 brands in Taiwan's market, and system dynamics is used to investigate its structure. The market of car lubricant in Taiwan is a complex system, composed of several key players, including brand holders, agents, retailers, and parallel importer. Study results show that the rising international oil price has little impact on brand awareness, it reduces importations through authorized dealers as well as car registrations, the significance of brand reputation, and the demands for car lubricant.