物價變動對台灣觀光業之影響

A Study of the Impact of Price Fluctuation on Tourism in Taiwan

練有為 ； 鄭素珍

《大漢學報》 24期 (2009/12) Pp. 103-121

https://doi.org/10.29704/JDIT.200912.0006

摘要

為探討物價變動對觀光1產業之影響，本研究首先採用歷年之觀光統計年報資料，運用Granger 因果關係檢定(Granger causality test)和誤差修正模型(error correction model, ECM)對通貨膨脹與來台旅客做一檢視2，估計結果顯示：就短期而言物價變動是旅客來台觀光的Granger 原因，但長期下物價上漲則確實對來台旅客有負面影響。
進而，採用產業關聯模型，估計能源價格的飆漲對台灣休閒產業的影響。本研究模擬油品價格提高50%後，透過產業關聯估算結果如下：對生產者物價之衝擊會上升3.161%，消費者物價會上升2.624%，前者明顯高於後者；對旅館服務業、餐飲服務業、旅行服務業和娛樂文化服務業之影響分別是上升1.432%、1.279%、1.537%和0.640%，合計約為5%，故控制物價應是維繫我國觀光品質之首要工作。

關鍵字

投入產出分析 ； 誤差修正模型 ； Granger因果關係檢定 ； 觀光業

並列摘要

With the data of tourist of Taiwan, this study adopts Granger causality test and error correction model to exam the relationship between consumer price index and tourist who visit Taiwan. The results show that consumer price index is the Granger cause of tourist of Taiwan in the short run. In the long run, the results show that inflation is disadvantage to the tourism industry of Taiwan Secondly, we use input-output analysis with 2004 input-output table of Taiwan to simulate the hike of 50% oil price increase. The results show that the price of the following industries: hotels, restaurants, travels and entertainments will have 1.432%, 1.279%, 1.237% and 0.640% higher separately. Hence, in order to pursuit the high performance of tourism industry, keeping low inflation rate should be the priority mission of our government.

並列關鍵字

Input-Output Analysis ； Error Correction Model ； Granger Causality Test Tourism