致災路徑結合What-If方法應用於火車行駛之風險評估

The Risk Assessment for the Combined Application of both Disaster Path and What-If Method in Driving Train

施元斌(Yuan-Pin Shih) ； 李宏志(Hung-Chih Lee) ； 徐煒程(Wei-Cheng Hsu) ； 鍾藏棟(Tsang-Dong Chung)

《南亞學報》 42期 (2022/12) Pp. 97-122

摘要

本研究採用我們過去所發表文章之分析方式，針對致災路徑與傳統What-If所結合之分析流程，以致災路徑當分析主軸，配合防災四道門的八大區塊（由工程面與管理面兩個面向，結合預防、矯正、保護與消減四個措施），將其應用於鐵道火車之行駛。針對火車特性選出危害性較大的三種狀況，分析了火車之啟動、直線行駛與彎道行駛三種狀況。針對花蓮台東彎道行駛路段之分析結果，輔以110年4月2日發生之太魯閣事件為驗證案例，期使本文之分析結果與建議能對火車行駛有實質上之幫助。

關鍵字

萬一－結果 ； 危害分析 ； 致災路徑 ； 防災四道門 ； 火車行駛

並列摘要

In this study, the analysis method of our past published articles is used, the analysis process combining the disaster-causing route with the traditional What-If method is applied to the operation of railway trains with the eight major blocks of the four gates of disaster prevention (from the engineering surface and the management plane, combined with the four measures of prevention, correction, protection and reduction). This paper analyzes the three conditions of railway train starting, straight driving and curved driving. The analysis results of curved driving, supplemented by the Taroko incident on April 2, 2021, as a case study, hope that the analysis results and suggestions in this paper can be of substantial help to railway driving.

並列關鍵字

What-If ； Hazard Analysis ； Disaster-causing path ； Four doors for Disaster Prevention ； Driving Train