- 期刊
大專籃球聯賽勝敗之探討－以99學年度大專甲一級男子籃球聯賽為例
An Analysis of the Victory or Defeat in the Collegiate First Level Male Basketball Tournament in 2011
摘要
本研究旨在瞭解大專盃男子組籃球甲一級聯賽十六所學校比賽勝敗與攻守記錄，經由文獻探討及實例探討單場比賽的勝敗與各項攻守記錄之間的重要性，並根據其影響勝敗的因子與攻守記錄的統計數據，比較各所學校間之差異性，以作為各大專院校之球隊訓練與比賽時的參考依據。本研究以羅吉斯迴歸（Logistic Regression）模型來分析，分析大專甲一級十六隊各所學校的勝敗與其他攻守項目之間的關係，爾後使用R統計軟體針對我們所得到的攻守數據，來分析二元分類的羅吉斯迴歸模型。結果顯示，兩分球命中率、防守籃板球以及失誤次數是最為影響勝敗的因子，其次為三分球命中率、罰球命中率以及進攻籃板球，最後為抄截。
並列摘要
The purpose of this study was to analyze the data of offense and defense performance and the victory or defeat in the collegiate first level male basketball tournament in 2011, by reviewing the data of the collegiate first level male basketball tournament collected from 2010 to 2011. Performance of offense and defense and the records of victory or defeat were divided into twelve categories, which were analyzed by using Logistic Regression and R project for Statistical analysis. The findings were as follows: the highest impact factors of the victory or defeat are 2 pointer made-attempts (2 PM-A), defensive rebound (DEF), and turnovers percentage (TO). The following factors were 3 pointer made-attempt (3PM-A), Free throw percentage (FT%), offensive rebound (OFF), and steals (STL).