評估社會住宅BOT之附屬設施規模合理性之財務模型－以台中市惠來段社會住宅案為實例

A FINANCIAL MODEL FOR EVALUATING REASONABLE SCALE OF BOT AFFILIATED BUSINESS：A CASE STUDY ON HUILAI SECTION SOCIAL HOUSING, TAICHUNG, TAIWAN

黃志耀(Chi-Yao Huang) ； 曾仁杰(Ren-Jye Dzeng)

《營建管理季刊》 109期 (2018/04) Pp. 1-13

https://doi.org/10.6505/CMJ.201804_109.0001

摘要

近年來，政府對於BOT專案採取零出資之態度，為增加民間投資者之意願，政府採取，釋出附屬事業開發權之方式，開放民間投資人，可投資附屬事業，以彌補專案之財務缺口。然而，促參法中並未對附屬事業之規模作規範，且以財務模型，評估附屬事業規模合理性之相關研究，亦十分缺乏，導致部分案例，其附屬事業規模超過主體事業，產生民眾對於附屬事業，反客為主之疑慮。因此，本研究，以財務現金流量觀念，利用數學解析方法，針對BOT專案，建構出附屬事業規模的財務模型，明確指出BOT案中合理之附屬事業規模比例，彌補相關研究文獻之不足。並以台中市惠來厝段社會住宅BOT專案作為案例，分析其足以吸引投資者之附屬事業規模。在本案例中，足以吸引投資者之附屬事業規模為分別是：取七年期間資料的30.81%，與取十七年期間資料的52.79%，然招標限制為25%，比例顯然過低。最後，本研究，針對期望報酬率、租金折扣做敏感度分析，發現於此案例中，政府吸引投資者意願之方式，僅有提高附屬事業比例，與調整社會住宅土地租金，等兩種方式，因此若欲提高投資者意願，必定要從這兩方面著手，其餘之手段將難有成效。

關鍵字

BOT ； 社會住宅 ； 財務模型 ； 附屬事業

並列摘要

Recent years, due to Taiwan government's no funding attitude towards BOT projects, to promote private BOT investments, the government has incorporated private investments in BOT affiliated business to increase private capital's return. However, the Act for Promotion of Private Participation in Infrastructure Projects of Taiwan has not regulated the scale of BOT affiliated business; therefore, in some BOT projects, the BOT affiliated business scale has been larger than its main business, drawing public concerns. Therefore, the aim of this paper attempts to construct a financial model of BOT affiliated business. Mathematical analysis was conducted through financial cash flow in order to indicate the ratio of BOT affiliated business scale to its main business that meets with financial reasonableness. The research also conducted a case study on Huilai Sector Social Housing in Taichung, Taiwan for further analysis on its BOT affiliated business scale. The results show that to attract private investment, the ratios of affiliated business in 7 years of data collection and 17 years of data collection are 30.81 % and 52.79 % respectively. However, the current government tender limits the ratio at 25%. Furthermore, this paper performed sensitivity analysis on expected rate of return, rental discount of the BOT case. The results suggested that the government should raise the ratio of BOT affiliated business and lower ground rent in order to increase private investor's willingness to invest in the social housing BOT project.

並列關鍵字

BOT ； social housing ； financial model ； affiliated business