以財務模型評估含有附屬事業之PPP-BOT模式研究－ 以台中市惠來段社會住宅案為例

近十年來，由於政府預算普遍的不足，在公共私營合作制（PPP）的專案中。政府往往採取零出資並釋出附屬設施權利，增加獲利給投資者的方式，來吸引投資人。然而，促參法中並未對附屬事業之規模作規範，且評估附屬事業規模合理性之相關研究，亦十分缺乏。因此，本研究，以財務折現現金流模型為基礎，利用數學解析方法，針對 BOT 專案，建構出附屬事業規模的財務模型，並以一社會住宅 BOT 專案作為案例，明確算出專案中，最低合理之附屬事業規模比例，分析其足以吸引投資者之附屬事業規模。在本社會住宅案例中，足以吸引投資者之附屬事業規模為分別是：取七年期間資料的 30.81%，與取十七年期間資料的 52.79%，顯然都不符合招標限制為 25%的比例。更進一步，本研究論文，延伸發展相對應的營業權利金模型，可作為公私兩造，權利金政策的談判參考，最後再針對期望報酬率、租金折扣及權利金做敏感度分析，發現於此案例中，政府吸引投資者意願之方式，僅有提高附屬事業比例，與調整社會住宅土地租金，等兩種方式，因此若欲提高投資者意願，必定要從這兩方面著手，才能成功吸引投資者。

關鍵字

PPP ； BOT ；社會住宅；權利金；財務模型；附屬事業

並列摘要

The past decade, due to budgetary constraints, the government releases the right to ancillary business development for private investors to increase profits in PPP projects. However, the ancillary business scale is not specified in the regulations, and there is little relevant research on modeling the scale. Thus, our research aims to create a model with mathematical analysis to evaluate the ancillary business scale. The model is constructed based on the discounted cash flow model to calculate the ancillary business scale attracting private investors with a case study of a social housing project. For this case, the calculated ancillary business minimum scale (ratio of ancillary business to project in total floor area) based on the 7-year (2009–2016) and 17-year (2000–2016) data are 30.81% and 52.79%, respectively; neither is able to meet the scale listed in the tender condition regulated by the government, i.e., 25%. This study further develops its corresponding royalty model used as a reference for the royalty negotiation between the public sector and private sector. Moreover, this study performs a sensitivity analysis on the expected rate of return and rent discount of the case. The government needs to raise the proportion of ancillary businesses or to increase the rent of social housing to successfully attract private investors.