- 期刊
預測NBA球隊能否進季後賽之結果
The result of predicting whether an NBA team can make the playoffs
摘要
本研究以2015至2019年的NBA各球隊的攻守數據表現為樣本，探討各賽季攻守數據與勝率的相關情形，找出影響各賽季勝率的重要攻守數據因素，並架構不同勝率模型來預測進入季後賽球隊。本研究所使用的統計方法有皮爾森積差相關分析、成對樣本t檢定與多元逐步迴歸分析法，所有統計檢定的顯著水準均訂為0.05。研究結果顯示，各賽季攻守數據與勝率皆有相關的因素為投籃命中率、三分球命中率、兩分球命中率、得分、對手投籃命中率、對手三分球命中率、對手兩分球命中率、對手防守籃板、對手阻攻與對手得分共10個變數。利用逐步迴歸分析法來找出影響各賽季勝率的重要攻守數據因素，發現影響2015-16賽季的重要因素為對手投籃命中率、阻攻、對手抄截、三分球命中率、進攻籃板與兩分球命中率；影響2016-17賽季的重要因素為對手三分球命中率、投籃命中率與對手進攻籃板；影響2017-18賽季的重要因素為兩分球命中率、對手投籃命中率、對手抄截、對手防守籃板與犯規。比較三個賽季所預測進入季後賽球隊以相關模型的正確率為最高。
並列摘要
This study uses the offensive and defensive data performance of each NBA team from 2015 to 2019 as a sample, explores the relevant situation of offensive and defensive data and winning rate in each season, finds out the important offensive and defensive data factors that affect the winning rate of each season, and constructs different winning rate models to predict entry Playoff team.The statistical methods used in this study include Pearson's product-moment correlation analysis, paired sample t test and multiple stepwise regression analysis. The significance level of all statistical tests is set as 0.05.The research results show that the factors related to offensive and defensive data and winning percentage in each season are shooting percentage, three-point shooting percentage, two-point shooting percentage, scoring, opponent shooting percentage, opponent three-point shooting percentage, and opponent two-point shooting There are 10 variables in shooting percentage, opponent's defensive rebound, opponent's resistance and opponent's score. Use stepwise regression analysis to find important offensive and defensive data factors that affect the winning rate of each season. It is found that the important factors that affect the 2015-16 season are the opponent's field goal percentage, block attack, opponent steals, three-point shooting rate, offensive rebounds and two points. Ball hit rate; the important factors affecting the 2016-17 season are the opponent's three-point field goal percentage, field goal percentage and opponent's offensive rebound; the important factors affecting the 2017-18 season are the two-point field goal percentage, opponent field goal percentage, and opponent's steal Intercepts, opponent defensive rebounds and fouls. Comparing the predictions of the three seasons to enter the playoffs, the correct rate of the relevant model is the highest.