Substituting Morbidity for Fatality: Cancer Prevalence in Taiwan, 1996-2006

The mortality declines since 1750 have transformed the nations to a state far apart from what they were previously. With the long-term trends in life expectancy at birth in the developed world consistently increasing, a ”new converging world” is likely emerging. However, the possibility of trading-off health for longevity looms ahead. Based on previous findings of a possible expansion of morbidity in Taiwan over the past decade, this paper focuses on cancer prevalence in order to examine the substitution of morbidity for fatality. Given a definition of the cancer prevalence growth rate, we explain that cancer fatality is inversely related to the prevalence growth. Using data on the number of cancer patients being actively treated from National Health Insurance (NHI) claim records, of people who have died of cancer and other causes from the national death registry, and newly diagnosed cases from the national cancer registry, we determined that, while the contribution of new cases is decreasing, the prevalence of cancer has increased over the past decade. We further determined that the increase in the prevalence of cancer is primarily the result of decreasing fatality with the cure of cancer playing a minor role in the process. The substitution of cancer prevalence for fatality is established.

並列關鍵字

cancer fatality ； cancer prevalence ； morbidity expansion ； morbidity substitution

國際替代計量

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