農產預測系統

The Predictive System for Agriculture Product

陳信榕(Hsin-Jung Chen) ； 陳水湶(Shui-Chuan Chen)

《休閒事業研究》 10卷2期 (2012/06) Pp. 116-129

https://doi.org/10.6746/LIR.201206_10(2).0008

摘要

此研究主要是利用管制圖的資料分析以及時間序列和線性迴歸的方式作為農產預測的研究重點，擷取幾樣產量較大的種植物，並且探討目前農產價格機能的調節以及天氣對於農作物的影響。本研究首先將研究對象選定，並且訂定出研究目標以及目的之後，開始進行資料的變數分析。探討其相對應的變數之間關係，最後資料上的數值以及變化中探討其預測價值，篩選後定義預測結果和變異的導向，並且給予未來農業經營導向。研究發現：一、將歷史資料作為分析天氣變化或走向是整個預測模型必定考慮的。現今農業必須考量到銷路和成本的應用，做最完整的生產，使得現在農業越來越精細打量各項產品的變數。二、減少供給量的短期作法包括：收購儲存、收購加工、出口及廢棄；增加需求量的短期作法則有：促銷、消費補貼、贈送等。中長期作法則得進行產業結構調整，在供給面設法分散產期、減少種植面積、改善儲運技術、提升產品品質及附加價值；在需求面設法增加產品的用途、改變消費習性創造需求、拓展外銷市場等。

關鍵字

管制圖 ； 線性迴歸 ； 時間序列 ； 農業經營

並列摘要

The current research focused on utilizing the data analysis of control Chart, Time Series, and Regression Analysis to study the predictability of agricultural production. Selecting plants with larger production, in the study, the researchers further explored the effects of agricultural products pricing adjustment and climate on crops. The study first selected the samples, designed the purpose and goal of the research, and then started to process the data with Regression Analysis. The analysis was applied to investigate the relationships among variables. Basing on the numerical data and the observed variation, the researchers examined the predicative value, the predicted results with filtered definition, and the tendency with discrepancy. Through the careful research design, the researchers anticipated to suggesting the managerial insights for the future agricultural industry. The findings, first, suggested that the predictive system must consider using historical data to analyze the climate change or tendency. After all, for the agricultural industry today, to better maximize the production capability, the industry today needs to contemplate over the application of sales channels, cost control as well as the possible variation in all the products. Secondly, the study found that method to decrease the short-term supply included, purchasing and storage, purchasing and processing, exporting and abandoning. As to the methods to increase the short-term demand included, promotion, subsidy, and as a gift. The mid-long term plan would be fine-tuning the industry structure. On the supply phase, it is critical to spread production period, decrease farming area, improve transporting and storage techniques, and enhance product quality and adding value. On the other hand, as to the demand phase, it is imperative to increase product application and usage, alter consumer behavior to create demand, and expand exporting opportunities.

並列關鍵字

Control Chart ； Regression Analysis ； Time Series ； Farm Operation