影響來台觀光旅客人數因素內衍性之探討

On the Study Endogeneity of the Factors Influence Tourists Visit Taiwan

魏文欽(Wen-Chin Wei) ； 莊瑋婷(Wei-Ting Chuang)

《休閒觀光與運動健康學報》 2卷2期 (2012/03) Pp. 146-171

https://doi.org/10.29504/JLTSH.201203.0010

摘要

鑒於來台觀光旅客人數從1968年的30萬人成長到2010年的325萬人，隨著觀光旅客人數的增加與觀光旅遊產業的蓬勃發展，對於國家外匯收入與經濟成長、創造當地的就業機會有相當大的影響。本文參考來台觀光旅客人數相對於東南亞觀光旅客人數之比例為觀光旅遊競爭力，並以觀光旅遊品質、匯率為影響變數，探討其對來台觀光旅客人數之影響。先以線性迴歸探討觀光旅館房床位數、國內實質生產毛額、進出口貿易量、匯率與消費者物價指數對來台觀光旅客人數之影響；再以結構方程模式（Structural Equation Modeling, SEM）建立影響來台觀光旅客人數之理論模型，並考慮觀光旅遊競爭力建立各變數之影響路徑；最後透過系統動力學（System Dynamics, SD）建模，期能提供有效之規劃思維與管理。

關鍵字

來台觀光旅客人數 ； 觀光旅遊品質 ； 匯率 ； 系統動力學

並列摘要

The number of tourists visited Taiwan from 30 million in 1968 growing to 325 million in 2010. With the increasing of tourists and the flourishing of tourism industry, there is a considerable impact which is the national foreign exchange earnings, the economic growth and the working opportunities for locals. The reference is the proportion of the numbers of tourists visiting Taiwan compared to Southeast Asia to be tourism competitiveness. The quality tourism and the exchange rate affect the variables of the number of tourists visiting Taiwan. First is the influence of tourists to visit Taiwan by using the linear regression explores the tourist hotel rooms, gross domestic product in real terms, import and export trade, exchange rates and consumer price index. Then Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) establishes the numbers of tourists to visit Taiwan theoretical framework, and consider the competitiveness of tourism impact of each variable to establish the path. Finally, using construction of the feedback System Dynamics (SD) diagram and equations, and it can provide effective thought and management.

並列關鍵字

Tourists to Visit Taiwan ； Quality Tourism ； Exchange Rate ； System Dynamics