The Strategic Concerns and Options of Central Asian Countries and the Great Powers in Central Asia

中亞諸國與列強在中亞的戰略關切與選擇

顏建發(Jiann-Fa Yan)

《清雲學報》 32卷2期 (2012/04) Pp. 81-94

https://doi.org/10.7049/JCYU.201204.0083

摘要

九一一恐怖攻擊使得中亞轉為一個強權政治爭奪的競技場。從戰略的利益出發，美、俄、中與中亞不必然是一種零和關係，諸國都希望能壓制回教極端主義、非法毒品、人口販賣、走私等勢力在此地的氣燄。除此之外，各方也希望從此地區經濟發展的強調而獲利，尤其是能源的開發。但各國看待此區利害關係的著眼點有異，自有互不相容之處。中亞五國政府在意的主要是主權的獨立行使，俄羅斯和中國重視在此區的經濟利益，而美國似乎較關切全球政治。在中亞這個競技場，涉入的行動者有共通利益，自然也有扞格。諸國之間的關係不宜簡化地詮釋為矛盾或和諧。自2010年中以來，隨著中國崛起，美國在此區的影響力雖有逐漸式微之勢，但勝負仍未到蓋棺論定的地步。

關鍵字

中亞 ； 中國 ； 美國 ； 俄羅斯 ； 戰略

並列摘要

The 9/11 terrorist attacks turned Central Asia into an arena of the political struggles among the significant players in the Central Asia. In terms of strategic interests, the relations among the US, Russia, China, and Central Asian countries need not be a zero-sum game. All the three countries, along with Central Asian states themselves, have an interest in defeating the terrorist threats from Islamic extremists, countering illegal drugs and human trafficking, and addressing illegal arms trading. Besides, they all pay a high interest in economic development in the region, above all, the energy issue. The governments of Central Asian countries are much more concerned about their sovereign independence while Russia as well as China about economic development; the US more about global politics. In the arena of Central Asia, involved players have some common interests, but in other areas, they are irreconcilable. The relations between Central Asian countries and the US, Russia as well as China cannot be simplistically interpreted as being contradictory or harmonious. In the wake of China rising, after mid-2010s, the U S influence in Central Asia has seemed significantly waned, but it is still too green to make a judgment over who will be the final winner in a foreseeable future.

並列關鍵字

Central Asia ； China ； US ； Russia ； Strategy