競賽優勢理論與籃球攻守變項致勝因素之研究：以中華女籃參加2003年世大運為例

Contributing Factors to Performance of Taiwanese Women's Basketball Team in 2003 Summer Universiade

陳順義(Shn-Yi Chen) ； 尚漢鼎(Steven Shang)

《大專體育學術專刊》 94年度 (2005/05) Pp. 434-444

https://doi.org/10.6695/AUES.200505_94.0042

摘要

本研究目的在應用競賽優勢理論：致勝因素及其因素間本質聯繫關係之架構，透過統計分析方法探討中華女籃代表隊參加2003年世界大學運動會之：一、了解中華隊各項致勝因素（快、狠、準、高）與得、失分的集中趨勢情形。二、了解中華隊不同技術水準對最後勝負得分之差異情形。三、了解中華隊各種致勝因素之先後順序關係。經探討研究結果發現：1.中華隊獲勝時於快、狠、準、高等四項致勝要素的技術表現皆優於落敗時的表現。2.中華隊獲勝時的得分與二分命中率、三分投數、總計投數、總計命中數呈顯著相關。落敗時的失分與二分投數、總籃板球及助攻數呈顯著相關。但所有與得、失分相關的技術表現經單因子變異數分析並無差異情形。3.中華隊獲勝的致勝要素為「準」；落敗的主因在於「快」致勝要素表現的差異。並預測中華隊未來可能致勝的迴歸方程式為：Ŷ=50.204＋1.804×（快攻總數）＋0.761×（助攻數）＋5.382×（阻攻數）＋0.277×（犯規數）。歸納後這些技術表現分屬於「高」和「快」致勝要素中。且「高」的重要性大於「快」。

關鍵字

優勢理論 ； 籃球

並列摘要

This study employs Game Theory to identify the contributing factors to performance of Taiwanese Women's Basketball Team in 2003 Summer Universiade. Official performance record of Taiwanese team versus seven teams, including, Canada, Ireland, South Korea, South Africa, Czechoslovakia, Russia and China, were obtained and analyzed. The four major factors, including quickness, aggression, accuracy and height, were utilized to calculate central tendency of win and lose, the relationship between skill level and handicap score and, the order of contributing factor to win the game. The descriptive statistical analysis, Pearson Correlation, one way ANOVA and Multiple Regression were calculated to predict the contributing win and lose variables. A significant level were set at α = .05. Results are as follows: 1. In defeating opposing teams situations, all of four major factors, including quickness, aggression, accuracy and height are in favor of Taiwanese team. 2. In winning situation, significant correlation were found between winning points and 2-point goal rate, total 3-point shots, total shots, total shooting goals, while in losing situation, significant correlation were found between lose points and 2-point shots, total rebounds and the number of assists. However, ANOVA analysis found that no difference between win-lose point and performed skill factors. 3. In winning situation, accuracy is the main contributing factor, while quickness is in losing situation. The predictive regression equation is: Ÿ=50.204+1.804×(fast breaks)+0.761×(assists)+5.382×(blocks)+0.277×(fouls) It is concluded that the contributing factors related to skill performance were height and quickness, while height is more significant than quickness.

並列關鍵字

game theory ； basketball