氣候推估及災害類型對果樹產業影響

Impact of Climate Projection and Disasters on Fruit Industry

陳永明(Yung-Ming Chen) ； 徐永衡(Yung-Heng Hsu) ； 黃亞雯(Ya-Wen Hwang) ； 劉玫婷(Mei-Ting Liu) ； 黃亞婷(Ya-Ting Hwang) ； 李欣輯(Hsin-Chi Li)

《臺中區農業改良場特刊》 143號 (2021/08) Pp. 112-120

摘要

氣候變遷導致極端事件強度與發生頻率增加，颱風、豪雨等災害事件亦增強，農業生產受天氣影響，颱風強度增強、降雨豐枯不均等情形，皆會加重農業損失。在臺灣，颱風豪雨是造成農損的主要原因，國家災害防救科技中心執行行政院農業委員會計畫，應用科技部統計降尺度資料，探討氣候變遷下葡萄生長期間可能遭遇大雨門檻之衝擊風險評估，結果發現在氣候情境（Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP）8.5情境下，未來數十年豪雨事件發生頻率將持續增加，而暖冬所造成荔枝開花異常，在未來開花適宜溫度之發生頻度將明顯下降，建議提前規劃相對應之調適方案。

關鍵字

氣候變遷 ； 颱風 ； 豪雨 ； 暖冬 ； 葡萄 ； 荔枝

並列摘要

Climate change has led to extreme disaster events more frequent. Furthermore, the intensity of disaster events, such as typhoon and heavy rains have become increased. It would rise the extent of agricultural losses. In Taiwan, typhoons and heavy rain are the main causes of agricultural losses. The National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction (NCDR) has implemented the support projects of the Council of Agriculture (COA). This study was supported by the COA and carried out by using the statistical downscaling database from the project of Ministry of Science and Technology. The case study of grape in Changhua was assessed the impact of heavy rain during the growing periods of grape under the climate change of RCP 8.5 emissions scenario. The results shown that frequency of heavy rain events would continue to increa se in the next few decades. Moreover, the warm winter would hinder flowering of litchi. The frequency of temperature suitable for flowering would be significantly decreased in the future. It would be recommended to plan the adaptation measures in advance.

並列關鍵字

Climate change ； Typhoon ； Extremely heavy rain ； Warm winter ； Grape ； Litchi